Small Wars Journal
Africa's Conflict-Ridden Regions Face Another Existential Threat in COVID-19
Africa's Conflict-Ridden Regions Face Another Existential Threat in COVID-19
Africa's Conflict-Ridden Regions Face Another Existential Threat in COVID-19
Lisa Bryant – Voice of America
PARIS - In the West African country of Burkina Faso, rising insecurity has shuttered dozens of health clinics and left just three capable of carrying out coronavirus testing.
In nearby Chad, a COVID-19-triggered drop in crude prices could translate into problems paying the Sahel region’s most powerful army fighting an Islamist insurgency.
And in nations ranging from Mali to the Democratic Republic of Congo to South Sudan, years of unrest have weakened governments, deepened hunger and malnutrition, and left crowded camps of displaced people with scant access to health care and hygiene services.
If experts fear the coronavirus may deal Africa an outsized blow, the continent’s conflict-torn regions are particularly vulnerable, analysts and humanitarians say.
“They are now facing two wars,” said Laurent Bossard, director of the Sahel and West Africa Club for the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. “And these two wars will be interlinked in many ways.”
So far, the continent has reported just a few thousand coronavirus cases, and no major outbreaks yet of the kind being endured in China, Italy and the United States.
But experts fear the cases could multiply rapidly, even as the continent risks potentially shrinking peacekeeping operations and humanitarian support from donor countries fighting their own battles against COVID-19.
Calling for urgent action, the International Committee of the Red Cross warned this week that Africa’s conflict areas would bear the brunt of a potentially “devastating” impact of COVID-19 on the continent.
“We’re particularly worried about Africa, because it’s a continent marked by conflict and violence that haven’t stopped” with the coronavirus, said the ICRC’s Dakar-based spokeswoman, Halimatou Amadou.
Yet Another Humanitarian Crisis?
Spreading unrest, much of its generated by Islamist militants, has led to the closure of more than 100 health facilities this year alone in Burkina Faso, according to the ICRC, while 20 percent of those centers have been partially or completely destroyed in neighboring Mali.
To the east, decades of war in South Sudan have left just one physician for every 65,000 people, according to the World Health Organization.
In the Horn of Africa, health experts fear a coronavirus outbreak in conflict-ravaged Somalia, with 2.6 million displaced people, could be one of the world’s worst, according to humanitarian group Refugees International.
The ICRC, for one, is working with local partners in Africa’s conflict zones to spread community awareness about the disease through media spots, flyers and small focus groups. But the challenges are tremendous, Amadou said, including the many areas rendered no-go zones through insecurity.
“We’re trying to think of ‘out of the box’ solutions to reach these populations,” she added.
Some conflict areas have a few advantages. In the Sahel, for example, unrest has limited circulation and cut off affected communities from capitals that could potentially be hard-hit by the pandemic.
The DRC also emerged from a devastating Ebola outbreak last month that may have better prepared health workers to deal with this latest health crisis.
“One of the forces of Africa is it’s a continent that has unfortunately been hit by different epidemics, and where the medical structure is used to working with very little means,” said the ICRC’s Amadou. “We have medical staff who are very inventive, who find solutions adapted to the local context.”
Military Setbacks
Although United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for a “global cease-fire” while fighting the pandemic, few armed groups in Africa appear to be listening.
Late last month, Boko Haram militants killed almost 100 Chadian troops in an ambush on a Lake Chad island, dealing N’Djamena’s military its deadliest blow yet. Boko Haram also killed nearly 50 Nigerian forces the same day.
With 1,000 troops committed to the French-supported, five-nation G5 Sahel campaign fighting the Islamist insurgency, Chad is facing another serious threat: an economic crunch from tumbling oil prices, which is also hitting Nigeria hard.
“Will the Chadian government be able to pay its forces in the future?” asked the OECD’s Bossard.
“From a security perspective, it really is a significant liability,” said Pierre Englebert, international relations professor at Pomona College in California and senior fellow at the Atlantic Council research group. “The Chadians are pretty much the only local military that’s really capable in the region, so it would leave the French with no serious partner there.”
For their part, it’s unclear whether many rebel and insurgent groups will feel economic pain from the coronavirus. In the Sahel, for example, a number survive through activities such as smuggling, kidnapping, and facilitating migration movements, Englebert said. He doubts they will be hard hit.
In DRC, the myriad rebel groups depend on small-scale activities like artisan mining. They, too, would be marginally affected by a coronavirus-driven global recession, he added.
Foreign Impact
France recently announced it would pull some of its forces from Iraq due to coronavirus concerns but has said nothing about withdrawing its 5,100-person counter-insurgency operation in the Sahel.
Last week, France and several other European countries announced the creation of a new special forces initiative in the Sahel, due to be fully operational next year.
But the coronavirus may prompt other international forces to scale back, even temporarily, analysts say. That includes the United States, which is already mulling troop cuts.
While the coronavirus may not directly impact Washington's decision, “I can only imagine it could precipitate it, could accelerate the rhythm of disengagement,” analyst Englebert said.
For its part, the U.N. has also asked nine troop-contributing countries affected by the coronavirus to delay their rotations to peacekeeping missions, many of which are in Africa. In South Sudan, U.N. peacekeepers are also taking steps to limit their potential exposure to the virus, including cutting travel to the field, according to Refugees International.
The U.N.'s peacekeeping headquarters in New York did not respond to a request for comment.
Experts also fear richer nations fighting the coronavirus and its fallout at home will fail to step up with the humanitarian assistance desperately needed for Africa to confront the pandemic, especially in conflict-affected regions.
Referring to the Sahel region, Bakary Sambe, of the Dakar-based research group Timbuktu Institute, warned the European Union of the dangers of being solely fixated on the bloc’s economic survival.
“The day the sanitary barricades are lifted, we’ll be confronted by the scale of the disaster,” Sambe told the Mondafrique investigative website.
“And we’ll realize, once again, that the Sahel’s vulnerabilities also concern Europe,” he added, “if only on the question of collective security, migration, and the fight against terrorism.”
The Military Must Balance National Security Risks With The Health Of Its Troops
The Military Must Balance National Security Risks With The Health Of Its Troops
The Military Must Balance National Security Risks With The Health Of Its Troops by Meghann Meyers – Military Times
With the services on track to report more than 1,000 cases of COVID-19 by the end of the week, military senior leadership is looking at a tough choice.
They can ramp down some missions in an attempt to stem the spread of coronavirus throughout the ranks and sacrifice both short- and long-term readiness.
Or, they can push ahead knowing that it could take longer for the infection rate to peter out ― and possibly cost more lives ― but having preserved national security to the fullest extent possible.
Those questions are part of the ongoing discussions at the highest levels of the Defense Department, Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman told Military Times on Friday.
“[There] seems to be this belief that the best way for the Department of Defense to defeat COVID-19 is for us to stand down and stop operations around the world,” Hoffman said. “One, that’s not going to happen. Two, we don’t believe that’s necessary.”…
Read on.
Pakistan Rearrests 4 Men in Daniel Pearl Case
Pakistan Rearrests 4 Men in Daniel Pearl Case
Pakistan Rearrests 4 Men in Daniel Pearl Case by Salman Mansood – New York Times
The Pakistani authorities said Friday that four men had been rearrested in the abduction and killing of the American journalist Daniel Pearl after a court overturned their convictions just the day before. The government will appeal their acquittals to Pakistan’s Supreme Court, officials said.
On Thursday the High Court in Sindh Province overturned the murder conviction of Ahmed Omar Sheikh, a high-profile British-born militant accused of masterminding the 2002 abduction and killing of Mr. Pearl. It also tossed his death sentence, reducing it to seven years, a move that would have allowed him to be freed for time served. The convictions of three other men in the case on murder and terrorism charges were also overturned.
The court decision was widely condemned by American officials and journalists’ groups. Welcoming Pakistan’s move to appeal on Friday, a senior State Department official said, “The overturning of the convictions for Daniel Pearl’s murder is an affront to victims of terrorism everywhere.”...
Read on.
In South Korea, How U.S. General Contained COVID-19
In South Korea, How U.S. General Contained COVID-19
In South Korea, How U.S. General Contained COVID-19
William Gallo – Voice of America
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA - “Go hard, go early.”
That’s the advice from Gen. Robert Abrams, the top U.S. general in South Korea, on how to combat the coronavirus.
“It'll seem like an overreaction. It'll seem a bit over the top…a week later, your community will understand, your unit will understand.”
Abrams, who spoke to VOA and CNN in a joint interview Thursday in Seoul, commands approximately 28,000 U.S. troops in South Korea. It was effectively the first U.S. community to be on the front lines against the coronavirus. Its efforts so far to contain the outbreak provide important insights in the global fight against COVID-19.
Quick Action
The most important lesson, according to Abrams, is to act immediately and decisively.
“You've got to attack this hard and fast from the very beginning,” he said, "It's got a very, very high infectious rate."
Nowhere is that more evident than South Korea.
The country reported its first case on January 20. Cases remained relatively low for weeks, until a 61-year-old woman, the country's 31st confirmed case, attended religious services after contracting the virus.
Within a week, South Korea exploded with thousands of cases -- over half of which were linked to the religious group.
“It only takes one person,” Abrams said, citing this case, South Korea's so-called Patient 31 case.
South Korea was able to quickly put out the cluster infection, thanks to its campaign of vigorous coronavirus testing, investigations to determine the path of infection and isolation of those involved.
So far, the U.S. military in South Korea has avoided its own “super spreader.” As of Friday, only 17 individuals related to U.S. Forces Korea, including two armed services members, have tested positive for the virus.
Fighting Complacency
With the number of new U.S. military-related infections picking up over the past week, though, Abrams has implemented strict new measures.
At Camp Humphreys, the biggest U.S. base in South Korea, life has changed dramatically. Gyms have been closed. Bus and taxi services are suspended. Lines sometimes form outside the commissary because only 100 people are allowed in the store at a time.
Last week, Abrams declared a public health emergency, which gave him greater authority to enforce restrictions among civilian employees, contractors, and service members’ families. That move came after a U.S. contractor caught the virus after eating at a local restaurant in violation of rules.
“The fight now is really about…complacency and ensuring that every single person remains vigilant,” Abrams said. “And it's difficult in a community, but what people need to understand about this enemy is that it only takes one person to not follow the guidance. That puts everyone else's health at risk. And it will be almost immediate.”
Military Readiness
Mission-related activities have also changed. Aircraft mechanics, for instance, have been separated into teams.
“So if a person on one team gets sick, it doesn’t affect all the mechanics,” Abrams said.
The same goes for air crews. Pilots now are paired up, rather than rotated, making it easier to track down infection paths, should the need arise, he said.
The measures could affect military readiness, especially if they last a long time, Abrams acknowledged. He said he is confident, though, of striking a balance between mission readiness and safety.
“We're still flying [intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance flights]. We're still flying helicopters. We're still conducting routine training,” he said. “It's required us to make some adjustments, but we’re all capable of doing it.”
The U.S. military must deal with the coronavirus while also keeping an eye on North Korea. That threat was highlighted last month, when North Korea tested a record number of short-range missiles.
Other Challenges
Making things even trickier, the U.S. military this week furloughed over 4,000 local South Korean civilian employees, amid deadlocked military cost-sharing negotiations between Washington and Seoul.
“I’ve been burning up the phone lines and email late at night and early morning back to Washington,” Abrams said of the cost-sharing talks, which are led on the U.S. side by the State Department.
Asked if the military is able to cope with the furloughs on top of the virus containment, all while remaining mission-ready, Abrams replied: “I don't have a choice. I have to deal with it...this is part of our duties and responsibilities.”
Looking Ahead
Nearly two months since the outbreak began in South Korea, the U.S. and much of the rest of the world are now learning the same lessons as those in South Korea.
One important final lesson is that even when it seems the virus has been contained, the battle isn’t over.
“I’m not about flattening the curve,” Abrams said. “I’m about squashing the curve.”
Statement From SECNAV on Relief of CO Aboard USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71)
Statement From SECNAV on Relief of CO Aboard USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71)
Statement From SECNAV on Relief of CO Aboard USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71)
Statement from the Acting Secretary of the Navy Thomas B. Modly, regarding the relief of the Commanding Officer of USS Theodore Roosevelt.
Good afternoon. Thank you again for your diligence and courage in keeping the American people informed as we all deal with the profound ramifications, and rapid developments, associated with this crisis.
I am here today to inform you that today at my direction, the Commanding Officer of the USS Theodore Roosevelt, Captain Crozier, was relieved of command by the Carrier Strike Group Commander, Rear Admiral Stuart Baker.
The Executive Officer, Captain Dan Keeler, has assumed command temporarily until such time as Rear Admiral Select Carlos Sardiello arrives in Guam to assume command. Rear Admiral Select Sardiello is the former commanding officer of the Theodore Roosevelt so he is extremely well-acquainted with the ship, many members of its crew and the operations and capabilities of the ship itself. He is the best person in the Navy right now to take command under these circumstances.
As Secretary of the Navy, I could not be more proud of our men and women serving as part of the Navy and Marine Corps team. I can assure you that no one cares more than I do about their safety and welfare. I myself have a son in uniform, who is currently serving right now on active duty in Korea—one of the first nations in the world to have a significant spike in Coronavirus cases. I understand, both as a parent and a veteran, how critical our support lines are for the health and well-being of our people, especially now in the midst of a global pandemic.
But there is a larger strategic context, one full of national security imperatives, of which all our commanders must all be aware today. While we may not be at war in a traditional sense, neither are we truly at peace. Authoritarian regimes are on the rise. Many nations are reaching, in many ways, to reduce our capacity to accomplish our national goals. This is actively happening every day. It has been a long time since the Navy and Marine Corps team has faced this broad array of capable global strategic challengers. A more agile and resilient mentality is necessary, up and down the chain of command.
Perhaps more so than in the recent past, we require commanders with the judgment, maturity, and leadership composure under pressure to understand the ramifications of their actions within that larger dynamic strategic context. We all understand and cherish our responsibilities, and frankly our love, for all of our people in uniform, but to allow those emotions to color our judgment when communicating the current operational picture can, at best, create unnecessary confusion, and at worst, provide an incomplete picture of American combat readiness to our adversaries.
When the Commanding Officer of the USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT decided to write his letter of 30 March 2020 that outlined his concerns for his crew in the midst of a COVID-19 outbreak, the Department of the Navy had already mobilized significant resources for days in response to his previous requests. On the same date marked on his letter, my Chief of Staff had called the CO directly, at my request, to ensure he had all the resources necessary for the health and safety of his crew.
The CO told my Chief of Staff that he was receiving those resources, and was fully aware of the Navy’s response, only asking that the he wished the crew could be evacuated faster. My Chief of Staff ensured that the CO knew that he had an open line to me to use at any time. He even called the CO again a day later to follow up. At no time did the CO relay the various levels of alarm that I, along with the rest of the world, learned from his letter when it was published two days later.
Once I read the letter, I immediately called the Chief of Naval Operations, ADM Gilday, and the Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet, ADM Aquilino. ADM Gilday had just read the letter that morning as well, and ADM Aquilino had it the day before. We had a teleconference within minutes of my reading of that article, including the Commander, SEVENTH Fleet, VADM William Merz, ADM Aquilino, ADM Gilday, the Department of the Navy’s Surgeon General, RADM Bruce Gillingham, and others. That evening, we held another teleconference with the entire chain of command.
The next day, I spoke with the CO of the THEODORE ROOSEVELT myself, and this morning, I have spoken to the TR’s Carrier Strike Group Commander, RDML Stuart Baker. RDML Baker did not know about the letter before it was sent to him via email by the CO. It is important to understand that the Strike Group Commander, the CO’s immediate boss, is embarked on the Theodore Roosevelt, right down the passageway from him. The letter was sent over non- secure, unclassified email even though that ship possesses some of the most sophisticated communications and encryption equipment in the Fleet.
It was sent outside the chain of command, at the same time the rest of the Navy was fully responding. Worse, the Captain’s actions made his Sailors, their families, and many in the public believe that his letter was the only reason help from our larger Navy family was forthcoming, which was hardly the case.
Command is a sacred trust that must be continually earned, both from the Sailors and Marines one leads, and from the institution which grants that special, honored privilege.
As I learned more about the events of the past week on board USS THEODORE ROOSEVELT (CVN-71), including my personal conversations with the Strike Group Commander, Commander, SEVENTH Fleet, Commander, U.S. Pacific Fleet, the Chief of Naval Operations, and CAPT Crozier himself, I could reach no other conclusion than that Captain Crozier had allowed the complexity of his challenge with COVID breakout on the ship to overwhelm his ability to act professionally, when acting professionally was what was needed most. We do, and we should, expect more from the Commanding Officers of our aircraft carriers.
I did not come to this decision lightly. I have no doubt in my mind that Captain Crozier did what he thought was in the best interests of the safety and well-being of his crew. Unfortunately, it did the opposite. It unnecessarily raised alarms with the families of our Sailors and Marines with no plan to address those concerns. It raised concerns about the operational capabilities and operational security of the ship that could have emboldened our adversaries to seek advantage, and it undermined the chain of command who had been moving and adjusting as rapidly as possible to get him the help he needed.
For these reasons, I lost confidence in his ability to lead that warship as it continues to fight through this virus, get the crew healthy, so that it can continue to meet its national security requirements. In my judgement relieving him of command was in the best interests of the United States Navy and the nation in this time when the nation needs the Navy to be strong and confident in the face of adversity. The responsibility for this decision rests with me. I expect no congratulations for it, and it gives me no pleasure in making it. CAPT Crozier is an honorable man, who despite this uncharacteristic lapse of judgment, has dedicated himself throughout a lifetime of incredible service to our nation.
Pursuant to this action, and with my full support, the Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Gilday has directed the Vice Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Robert Burke, to conduct an investigation into the circumstances and climate of the entire Pacific Fleet to help determine what may have contributed to this breakdown in the chain of command. We must ensure we can count on the right judgment, professionalism, composure, and leadership from our Commanding Officers everywhere on our Navy and Marine Corps team, but especially in the Western Pacific. I have no indication that there is a broader problem in this regard, but we have obligation to calmly and evenly investigate that nonetheless.
To our Commanding Officers, it would be a mistake to view this decision as somehow not supportive of your duty to report problems, request help, protect your crews, and challenge assumptions as you see fit.
This decision is not one of retribution. It is about confidence. It is not an indictment of character, but rather of judgement. While I do take issue with thevalidity of some of the points in Captain Crozier’s letter, he was absolutely correct in raising them.
It was the way in which he did this, by not working through and with his Strike Group Commander to develop a strategy to resolve the problems he raised, by not sending the letter to and through his chain of command, by not protecting the sensitive nature of the information contained within the letter appropriately, and lastly by not reaching out to me directly to voice is concerns, after that avenue had been provided to him through my team, that was unacceptable.
Let me be clear, you all have a duty to be transparent with your respective chains of command, even if you fear they might disagree with you. This duty requires courage, but it also requires respect for that chain of command, and for the sensitivity of the information you decide to share and the manner you choose to share it.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I would like to send a message to the crew of the Theodore Roosevelt and their families back here at home. I am entirely convinced that your Commanding Officer loves you, and that he had you at the center of his heart and mind in every decision that he has made. I also know that you have great affection, and love, for him as well. But it is my responsibility to ensure that his love and concern for you is matched, if not exceeded by, his sober and professional judgement under pressure.
You deserve that throughout all the dangerous activities for which you train so diligently, but most importantly, for those situations which are unpredictable and are hard to plan for. It’s important because you are the TR, you are the Big Stick, and what happens onboard the TR matters far beyond the physical limits of your hull. Your shipmates across the fleet need for you to be strong and ready—and most especially right now they need you to be courageous in the face of adversity.
The nation needs to know that the Big Stick is undaunted, unstoppable —and that you will stay that way as we as a Navy help you through this COVID-19 challenge. Our adversaries need to know this as well. They respect and fear the Big Stick, and they should. We will not allow anything to diminish that respect and fear as you, and the rest of our nation, fights through this virus. As I stated, we are not at war by traditional measures, but neither are we at peace. The nation you defend is in a fight right now for our economic, personal and political security, and you are on the front lines of this fight in many ways.
You can offer comfort to your fellow citizens who are struggling and fearful here at home by standing the watch, and working your way through this pandemic with courage and optimism and set the example for the nation. We have an obligation to ensure you have everything you need as fast as we can get it there, and you have my commitment that we will not let you down. The nation you have sworn to defend is in a fight, and the nations and bad actors around the world who wish us harm should understand that the Big Stick is in the neighborhood and that her crew is standing the watch.
Thank you, and I am ready to answer any questions you may have.
Source... 
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