Small Wars Journal
Irregular Warfare Podcast: The Practice and Politics of Security Force Assistance
Irregular Warfare Podcast: The Practice and Politics of Security Force Assistance
An old (Nov '20) but excellent podcast with Dr. Mara Karlin, the new Principle Assitant Security of Defense for International Security Affairs. This is a good primer for anyone curious what direction U.S. engagment with allies and partners may be going over the next 4 years.
https://mwi.usma.edu/the-practice-and-politics-of-security-force-assistance/
USIP Publication: Global Fragility Act: A Chance to Reshape International Security Assistance?
USIP Publication: Global Fragility Act: A Chance to Reshape International Security Assistance?
By Calin Trenkov-Wermuth and Paul M. Bisca
Full Article: https://www.usip.org/publications/2021/01/global-fragility-act-chance-reshape-international-security-assistance
When the new U.S. administration gets to work, domestic priorities will be front and center on the agenda. Preventing state fragility and violent extremism abroad may seem less urgent. But implementing the Global Fragility Act (GFA)—which aims to fulfill those goals—should remain a top priority. Successfully advancing the GFA would directly benefit U.S. national security and help establish a more values-driven foreign policy. To this end, the United States should work with allies to create a global architecture for security sector assistance built on principles of aid effectiveness adapted from development financing. A U.S.-brokered international consensus on security assistance would help stabilize fragile states, prevent violence, and increase the value of dollars spent on the GFA.
Rethinking SSA that’s ‘Stuck in the Past’
The GFA marks a new approach in U.S. policy toward fragile states. It calls for all parts of the U.S. government to work out a coherent strategy and repurpose foreign assistance toward averting conflict and violent extremism. To achieve these goals, the GFA dedicates $1.15 billion over a 10-year time horizon for programs in five countries or regions. The GFA implementation strategy directs the State Department, the Department of Defense, and other agencies to promote meaningful reforms of security and justice sector institutions that increase legitimacy and reduce corruption. They should also work together to support legitimate, rights-respecting security institutions, capable of countering threats to stability, such as terrorist groups.
A shift in U.S. security sector assistance (SSA) toward advancing the good governance of armies and police is necessary. In Africa, a 2018 RAND Corporation study revealed that SSA has been highly inefficient and may have achieved the opposite of its objectives: U.S. assistance was not correlated with reductions in civil wars, terrorism, or state repression. In Afghanistan, the U.S. allocated $83 billion in security assistance since 2002, but the Afghan army and police have failed to subdue the Taliban—the group now exercises control or influence in at least half of the country. In Iraq, despite billions invested in training and equipment, local security forces disintegrated quickly in the face of the Islamic State in 2014 and remain dependent on U.S. assistance. The result is an approach to SSA that has been labeled “stuck in the past” and fails to efficiently build allies’ and partners’ capabilities.
The same problems undermine European SSA initiatives. In West Africa, these initiatives focus primarily on expensive efforts to help local security forces achieve military victory against violent extremists. This strategy may strengthen partner forces’ operational effectiveness in battle. But by neglecting security sector governance, European SSA may also make them less legitimate. France’s Operation Barkhane in Mali costs $800 million per year, dwarfing the EU’s security sector reform programs. However, Malian forces are prone to human rights violations, and successfully staged a coup d’état in August 2020.
The GFA is thus a chance for the U.S. security assistance to break with the past. In addition to repurposing its own instruments and approach, the United States should strive to create global norms for effective security assistance. Presently, there is no common framework or forum for Washington and its allies to decide what SSA initiatives to finance; how to find out which policies work and which have failed; or simply to have a data-driven debate on obstacles to success and lessons learned. International security sector assistance thus suffers from a massive deficit in global governance. The effects are perpetual cycles of violence, instability, and state fragility—precisely the problems that the GFA seeks to address.
Modern War Institute Article: We Don't Own the Night Anymore By Jon Tishman and Dan Schoen
Modern War Institute Article: We Don't Own the Night Anymore By Jon Tishman and Dan Schoen
By Jon Tishman and Dan Schoen
A discussion of threats to U.S. Army (and U.S. military as a whole) night operations, from everyone from near-peer adversaries to irregular actors.
Full Article: https://mwi.usma.edu/we-dont-own-the-night-anymore/
01/23/2021 News & Commentary - National Security
01/23/2021 News & Commentary - National Security
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. Opinion | China threw down the gauntlet to the Biden team on day one
2. “The President Threw Us Under the Bus”: Embedding With Pentagon Leadership in Trump’s Chaotic Last Week
3. U.S. to resume processing thousands of stalled visas for Afghans who aided Americans
4. White House Orders Assessment on Violent Extremism in U.S.
5. Lloyd Austin, Biden's Pick for Secretary of Defense, Approved by Senate
6. Day One Message to the Force From Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III
7. New Officials Sworn-In at the Department of Defense
8. Want to Stop the Next Crisis? Teaching Cyber Citizenship Must Become a National Priority
9. Pandemic Numbers Are (Finally) Tiptoeing in the Right Direction
10. The True Power of Social Media Restrictions
11. Anger at China’s Covid-19 Response Smolders in Wuhan
12. Military and Police Investigate Members Charged in Capitol Riot
13. The Covid-19 Origin Investigation
14. China is hitting back at criticism of its vaccines with a dangerous disinformation campaign
15. Counter-Terrorism and the Rule of Law
16. Sen. Tom Cotton campaigned on his "experience as an Army Ranger"
17. Order from Chaos: The Architecture of American Renewal Comes from a Mindset of Grey-Zone Superiority — a Great Power monograph
1. Opinion | China threw down the gauntlet to the Biden team on day one
The Washington Post – by Josh Rogin - January 21, 2021
Conclusion: China’s opening salvo leaves no room for doubt: Contentious competition will be the focus of the U.S.-China relationship for the next four years. Beijing’s greatest fear is that the Biden team will be better at it than Trump.
2. “The President Threw Us Under the Bus”: Embedding With Pentagon Leadership in Trump’s Chaotic Last Week
A long and fascinating story about former Acting SECDEF Chris Miller. Chris was the "man in the arena."
Vanity Fair · by Adam Ciralsky – 22 January 2021
3. U.S. to resume processing thousands of stalled visas for Afghans who aided Americans
The Washington Post – by Savannah George - January 21, 2021
Excerpts:
“Because this is a multistep process ... if one step is put on hold, it’s inevitable that a bulge will form at that point in the system,” Alagesan said. She and other refugee advocates believe the backlog created by the 2020 slowdown will be felt for years to come unless the Biden administration makes dramatic changes.
All Special Immigrant Visa applicants already hold some kind of security clearance that allows them to work closely with U.S. military or government personnel but are vetted again by multiple U.S. security and intelligence agencies. Applicants are also required to sit for multiple interviews and a rigorous medical examination. In all, 14 steps are required before an applicant and his or her immediate family is cleared to travel.
As security deteriorates in many parts of Afghanistan, that wait time is putting Afghan applicants at greater risk.
4. White House Orders Assessment on Violent Extremism in U.S.
The New York Times · January 22, 2021
Necessary but this is also a potential minefield that could contribute to increased recruitment and radicalization if there are significant missteps. And there needs to be a strong IO plan to accompany this and protect the action. The majority of this "fight" is going to take place in the information domain and we will need to be able to operate effectively in that domain.
5. Lloyd Austin, Biden's Pick for Secretary of Defense, Approved by Senate
thetablet.org · by Bill Miller · January 21, 2021
A fairly comprehensive story about our new SECDEF.
Of course I would highlight this excerpt:
As the Vietnam War raged, patriotic attitudes prevailed in Thomasville, Austin said.
He recalled his fascination with his father’s World War II experiences, a retired postal worker, who served with the U.S. Army Air Corps in the Philippines. Another influence was an uncle who joined the U.S. Army Special Forces.
“He’d come home wearing a green beret and those airborne wings,” Austin said. “He was just really squared away. He talked to me about what he was doing, the ability to serve your country, and that sort of business. Despite the fact Vietnam was a war raging at the time, it was clear to me that one of the things that I really felt that I needed to do was to find a way to serve in the military.”
6. Day One Message to the Force From Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III
defense.gov - Jan. 22, 2021
I am honored to have this chance to serve again and to do so alongside you and your families. My wife, Charlene, and I know all too well the sacrifices you make to keep this country safe. That safety is job one, and I promise to work as hard as you do at it.
The way I see it, my job as Secretary of Defense is to make you more effective at doing yours. That means ensuring you have the tools, technology, weapons, and training to deter and defeat our enemies. It means establishing sound policy and strategy and assigning you clear missions. It means putting a premium on cooperation with our allies and partners. And it means living up to our core values, the same ones our fellow citizens expect of us.
Right now, of course, doing my job also means helping our country get control of the pandemic, which has killed more than 400,000 Americans. You have already come to the aid of our Nation's health care professionals. You can expect that mission to continue. But we must help the Federal Government move further and faster to eradicate the devastating effects of the coronavirus. To that end, we will also do everything we can to vaccinate and care for our workforce and to look for meaningful ways to alleviate the pressure this pandemic has exerted on you and your families.
None of us succeeds at this business alone. Defending the country requires teamwork and cooperation. It requires a certain humility, a willingness to learn, and absolute respect for one another. I know you share my devotion to these qualities.
I am proud to be back on your team.
The Day One Message to the Force memo can be found here.
7. New Officials Sworn-In at the Department of Defense
defense.gov
For those tracking these officials.
8. Want to Stop the Next Crisis? Teaching Cyber Citizenship Must Become a National Priority
TIME · by P.W. Singer and Michael McConnell – 22 January 2021
Excerpts:
How do we better equip the next generation of American citizens, so that they won’t suffer our generations’ fate?
Here is what the research shows. When the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace recently gathered 85 proposals made by 51 different organizations exploring what needed to be done to battle against the online forces of mis- and disinformation that contaminate and poison truth, by far the most frequently recommended policy action was to raise the digital literacy of those who consume that information.
Sometime also described as “media literacy” or “cyber citizenship,” digital literacy is about having the skills to succeed in an increasingly digital world. It is not just about being able to find information online (which is all too easy), but also to be able to analyze and evaluate it for everything from its sourcing to whether someone is trying to manipulate you or not. Or, as a RAND Corporation report on the value of such skills as an essential tool to battling misinformation or “truth decay” summed, it is about “teaching participants how to think without dictating what to think.”
And yet, the vast majority of the policy, media, and civil society have focused on remedies that do not involve this priority. Instead, we keep looking for silver bullets through rewriting the legal codes that govern social media or the software code they use to run their networks. Each approach is certainly worthy of attention.
9. Pandemic Numbers Are (Finally) Tiptoeing in the Right Direction
defenseone.com · by The COVID Tracking Project
Do not jinx us. Hopefully this trend will continue.
10. The True Power of Social Media Restrictions
The National Interest · by Eric Farnsworth · January 22, 2021
A "knotty issue?" Perhaps that is an understatement.
Finally, there is the knotty issue of which individuals specifically should be prevented from access to social media, and whether such categories won’t expand to include officials from regimes that Washington simply doesn’t like or those who may be promoting policies that may not rise to the level of criminality or crimes against humanity but rather amount to little more than differences on social issues, say, or climate change and the environment, or other areas of disagreement, no matter how intense. There must therefore be strict policies and guidelines that focus on those who are credibly accused of legally-sanctionable behavior. A presidential “finding” or Congressional action may be warranted to define the specific, narrow, and very rare instances when the social media sanction should be applied in furtherance of U.S. foreign policy goals.
The True Power of Social Media Restrictions
The way in which authoritarians use social media is somewhat akin to the manner in which Adolf Hitler used the then-emerging radio technology to appeal to the German people above the heads of the traditional media of the time. Without radio, he still might have become chancellor, but at least it would have been more difficult.
11. Anger at China’s Covid-19 Response Smolders in Wuhan
WSJ · by Trefor Moss
Excerpts:
“The stuff the government says in the media—I don’t believe a word of it,” he said, echoing the protests that greeted Ms. Sun, the vice premier, on her visit last year. “Personally, I think the Covid situation could still be serious.”
Mr. Zhu blames officials for the deaths of his relatives. He said they lied about the epidemic in its first weeks, putting millions of people in danger to safeguard their own careers. He expressed outrage that the government had seemingly learned nothing from the 2003 outbreak of a similar novel coronavirus known as Sars that infected over 8,000 people, mostly in China, amid an attempted government coverup.
“They still operate in exactly the same way—suppressing, blocking news, covering things up,” he said.
Anger at China’s Covid-19 Response Smolders in Wuhan
12. Military and Police Investigate Members Charged in Capitol Riot
WSJ · by Deepa Seetharaman, Zusha Elinson and Ben Kesling
13. The Covid-19 Origin Investigation
WSJ · by The Editorial Board
This needs more attention and focus in the news and within the international community and international organizations.
14. China is hitting back at criticism of its vaccines with a dangerous disinformation campaign
CNN · by James Griffiths
Admit nothing, deny everything, and make counter accusations.
15. Counter-Terrorism and the Rule of Law
warontherocks.com · by Deborah Pearlstein · January 22, 2021
Rule of law must prevail always.
Conclusion: "Where one can find them, such bipartisan expressions of a commitment to shared principles are essential in helping to shore up slipping confidence in governmental institutions. They enable officials to rebuild some muscle memory of what it is like to govern across partisan lines and to reinforce normative beliefs in law’s ability to constrain power. And they offer some cause for hope that when the inevitable next set of rule violations arise, there remains a rule-of-law system still able, over time, to correct itself."
16. Sen. Tom Cotton campaigned on his "experience as an Army Ranger"
Salon · January 23, 2021
Wow. Salon.com takes on the Ranger qualified versus US Army Ranger debate. I would not expect it from this media outlet but I guess it suits their purpose to be able to criticize Senator Cotton.
But the lesson for all of us is: don't exaggerate (and it goes without saying, don't lie) about your military service.
17. Order from Chaos: The Architecture of American Renewal Comes from a Mindset of Grey-Zone
https://www.greatpower.us/p/autocracy-ascends-the-cracks-of-democracy - by Molly McKew
Superiority — a Great Power monograph
I missed this when it was originally published. Now 5 parts have been published and can be accessed at the links below. The introduction us pasted below.
A lot to parse from this. So can we gain "grey-zone superiority."
Excerpts:
Currently, we lack the mindset, vision, organization, or mobilization capacity to overcome these deficits — and we have lacked the leadership and political will to reorient in the right direction. We don’t even really assess them apiece — as a common failure in mobilizing our resources toward the correct set of problems. We need a unified approach to enhance resilience at home and abroad — which means we need to compete in, and have operational and intelligence capabilities in, all the grey spaces where our adversaries attack us, collect on us, infiltrate us, or can count on us being absent or flat-footed.
At home and abroad, we are challenged along the seams — and in these grey spaces, attribution can be murky, authority for action unclear, right-sized capabilities hard to determine. Right now, the way we organize and mobilize diminishes rather than unleashes formal and informal American capabilities that would be sharp in these domains. Transforming our mindset on this entire conception of strength and power is a necessary first step toward creating the resilience that will begin to alter this terrible math where the West is strong — economically, militarily — but seems to be fractious and declining while autocracies that are systemically fragile seem to be cohesive and ascending.
"Insurrection by means of guerrilla bands is the true method of warfare for all nations desirous of emancipating themselves from a foreign yoke. It is invincible, indestructible."
- Giuseppe Mazzini
"In such a society as ours the only possible chance for change, for mobility, for political, economic, and moral flow lies in the tactics of guerrilla warfare, in the use of fictions, of language."
- Kathy Acker
"Be courteous to all, but intimate with few, and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence - true friendship is a plant of slow growth."
- George Washington
01/23/2021 News & Commentary - Korea
01/23/2021 News & Commentary - Korea
News and Commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and Published by Riley Murray.
1. From the Jerusalem of the East to a Totalitarian Regime: North Korea’s History Behind Christian Persecution
2. National Security Directive on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological Preparedness
3. N. Korea has consistent direction, changing tactics to develop nukes: U.S. official
4. N. Korean nuclear activities pose serious threat to peace: Psaki
5. North Korean Defectors Want Biden to Be Forceful with Kim Jong Un
6. 'No likelihood of North Korea collapse with Kim in complete control'
7. Ex-ambassador to S. Korea Sung Kim appointed acting assistant secretary of state
8. Why Does Gov't Persist in Peddling N.Korea Fantasies?
9. Singapore deal Moon wants Biden to inherit was flawed: US experts
10. North Korea sees talks as way to advance nuclear program, says US intel official
11. North Korea Directs Companies to Eliminate ‘Import Disease’ and Pursue Self-Reliance
12. North Korean Trade Officials Scramble to Import Chinese Construction Materials
13. North Korea diplomacy is only used to advance nuclear programme, says top US official
14. Opinion | Kim Jong Un likes to provoke new U.S. presidents. Biden’s team should be prepared.
15. Post-Party Congress Clean-up in Pyongyang
16. Kim Yo Jong Stays in the Picture
1. From the Jerusalem of the East to a Totalitarian Regime: North Korea’s History Behind Christian Persecution
nkhiddengulag.org – 21 January 2021
Excerpt: There are multiple reasons as to why the Kim regime would feel particularly threatened by Christianity. Along with its historically strong connection with North Korea’s enemy, America, Christianity has had a transformational effect on Korea both politically and ideologically along with the promotion of social change on the peninsula.
2. National Security Directive on United States Global Leadership to Strengthen the International COVID-19 Response and to Advance Global Health Security and Biological Preparedness
JANUARY 21, 2021 • STATEMENTS AND RELEASES
Excerpt:
(c) COVID-19 Sanctions Relief. The Secretary of State, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of HHS and the Administrator of USAID, shall promptly review existing United States and multilateral financial and economic sanctions to evaluate whether they are unduly hindering responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, and provide recommendations to the President, through the APNSA and the COVID-19 Response Coordinator, for any changes in approach.
I am concerned about the above paragraph and what it might mean for north Korea. It is possible that the White House could decide to lift sanctions for humanitarian reasons based on NSD-1. I recommend against that because as I have mentioned the Korean people in the north are suffering because of the deliberate policy choices Kim Jong-un has made and continues to make. He has sufficient resources to relieve the suffering but he has prioritized resourcing the military over the welfare of the people. He provided evidence to this effect on October 10th at the military parade for the 75th anniversary of the Korean Workers Party and during the 8th Party Congress that took place last week. He showed us the modern military equipment he has chosen to invest in. I would also argue that the regime is sanctioned because of its malign activity - its nuclear and missile programs, its proliferation activities, its global illicit activities, its cyber activities, and its human rights abuses and crimes against humanity. If we lift sanctions on any of these activities we are no longer holding the regime accountable for that malign activity. I would ask anyone who advocates lifting sanctions to state which of these activities do they wish to condone? And of course, Kim could have sanctions lifted if would simply comply with the requirements of the sanctions. The bottom line is it is Kim who is causing the suffering of the Korean people in the north, not the US or international sanctions.
3. N. Korea has consistent direction, changing tactics to develop nukes: U.S. official
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 23, 2021
Good analysis from our National Intelligence Officer for north Korea.
At the party congress, Kim said the country has successfully developed "tactical" and submarine-launched nuclear weapons.
"What we see in the eighth party congress readout is a strategic snapshot of what we have been seen all along," said Seiler. "It really doesn't give us, you know, extremely helpful insight into what the next provocation is, or what the timing of Kim's next diplomatic outreach reach might be, but we can see in it that the fundamentals of North Korea aren't really changing."
He also noted the North's new "tactical" nuclear weapons pose a direct threat to South Korea.
4. N. Korean nuclear activities pose serious threat to peace: Psaki
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 23, 2021
As an aside I am really enjoying the White House press briefings.
Key point: Psaki said the administration will come up with a strategy to deal with the North, but will first review available options, including diplomacy, through consultation with U.S. allies, including South Korea.
However, I do have criticism for Ms. Psaki. Her comments about the north Korean nuclear threat are of course correct; however, by making those comments we are reinforcing the legitimacy of Kim Jong-un. He interprets those comments as the world fears him as the leader of a nuclear power. Obviously, we have to talk about the nuclear threats. But whenever we do talk about the threat, we also need to balance that with comments that Kim Jong-un is the worst human rights violator in the modern era and that he denies the human rights of the Korean people in the north solely to remain in power. and it is his pursuit of nuclear weapons that is causing the great suffering inside north Korea. He has chosen to prioritize nuclear weapons over the welfare of the people. Such comments will be picked up by VOA and RFA (as they conduct their mission to explain US policy to populations in information denied areas) and broadcast into north Korea for the Korean people. It is important that the human rights message be repeated over and over again and every time we talk about the nuclear program we need to talk about the crimes against humanity Kim Jong-un is guilty of.
5. North Korean Defectors Want Biden to Be Forceful with Kim Jong Un
voanews.com · by Hyun Suk Kim, Yanghee Jang – 21 January 2021
We should pay attention to escapees.
6. 'No likelihood of North Korea collapse with Kim in complete control'
The Korea Times · January 22, 2021
By all accounts Kim is in control. But given the current conditions that could change and we must be vigilant for the indicators of potential instability. The actions Kim is taking to ensure he remains in power could result in blowback like there has never been such blowback before.
7. Ex-ambassador to S. Korea Sung Kim appointed acting assistant secretary of state
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · January 22, 2021
I cannot imagine too many people more qualified than Sung Kim for EAP.
Excerpt: Still, it was not clear whether Kim would be formally nominated to become the assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs, which requires Senate approval, or if he is temporarily filling the post vacated by David Stilwell, who was appointed by former President Donald Trump.
8. Why Does Gov't Persist in Peddling N. Korea Fantasies?
english.chosun.com
Fantasies? Simply erroneous strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime. The Moon administration assumptions have been proven wrong time and again over the past four years. When your assumptions are wrong you have to change your policy and strategy.
9. Singapore deal Moon wants Biden to inherit was flawed: US experts
koreaherald.com · by Choi Si-young · January 22, 2021
We should look at the Singapore agreement through the lens Syd Seiler describes. The regime uses negotiations to advance its nuclear program. Every agreement will be less than perfect of course. We must recognize the Kim is conducting his form of political warfare and we need to conduct a superior form of it.
Here is my summary of the regime's political warfare strategy that I think was reaffirmed at the 8th Party Congress:
•Political Warfare
•Subversion, coercion, extortion
•“Blackmail diplomacy” – the use of tension, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions
•Example: Kim Yo-jong threats in June – ROK anti-leaflet law in December
•Negotiate to set conditions - not to denuclearize
•Set Conditions for unification (domination to complete the revolution)
•Split ROK/US alliance
•Reduce/weaken defense of the South
•Exploit regional powers (e.g, China and Russia)
•Economics by Juche ideology – the paradox of “reform”
•Illicit activities to generate funds for regime
•Deny human rights to ensure regime survival
•Continue to exploit COVID threat to suppress dissent and crack down on 400+ markets and foreign currency use
•Priority to military and nuclear programs
•For deterrence or domination?
So when we want to tout the Singapore deal (and we should hold it up to Kim Jong-un to remind him of his commitment to denuclearize as Frank Aum recommends) we need to understand how Kim uses it to support his political warfare strategy.
10. North Korea sees talks as way to advance nuclear program, says US intel official
The Korea Times · January 23, 2021
The National Intelligence Officer speaks and the Korean press listens and parses every word!
11. North Korea Directs Companies to Eliminate ‘Import Disease’ and Pursue Self-Reliance
rfa.org
This is why I call Kim Jong-un's policy "economics by Juche."
Some descriptions of Juche:
Han S Park. ed. North Korea: Ideology, Politics, Economy, (Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall,1996), p. 15 in which Han S. Park describes Juche as theology. See also the Korea military news paper “KuK Pang Ilbo” editorial on 15 MAR 99, p. 6. Chuje’s (Juche) basic concept is this: “Man rules all things; man decides all things.” “The Kim Il Song Chuche ideology is based on these precepts: In ideology Chuche (autonomy); in politics, self-reliance; in economics, independence; and in National Security: self-defense.” See also Mattes Savada, ed., North Korea: A Country Study (Washington: Federal Research Division, Library of Congress, 1994), p. 324., “Kim Il Sung’s application of Marxism-Leninism to North Korean culture and serves as a fundamental tenet of the national ideology. “Based on autonomy and self-reliance, chuch’e has been popularized since 1955 as an official guideline for independence in politics, economics, national defense and foreign policy.”
12. North Korean Trade Officials Scramble to Import Chinese Construction Materials
rfa.org
Hardly an example of self-reliance.
13. North Korea diplomacy is only used to advance nuclear programme, says top US official
The Guardian · January 23, 2021
Again, Syd Seiler's comments are getting a lot of press (and that is a good thing). Every US and ROK official needs to commit these words to memory and put them in the forefront of their minds when they are developing policy and strategy toward north Korea.
Excerpts:
Sydney Seiler, the US national intelligence officer for North Korea, told the Center for Strategic and International Studies thinktank earlier that Pyongyang’s weapons development had been a consistent policy for 30 years.
“Every engagement in diplomacy has been designed to further the nuclear programme, not to find a way out … I just urge people not to let the tactical ambiguity obstruct the strategic clarity about North Korea that we have,” he said.
In my words: we must understand and deal with north Korea's political warfare strategy.
14. Opinion | Kim Jong Un likes to provoke new U.S. presidents. Biden’s team should be prepared.
The Washington Post · by Editorial Board · January 22, 2021
It is interesting the Washington Post Editorial Board chooses this as the subject two days after the inauguration and when the initial focus of the Biden Administration must be on COVID-19 and the economy. Perhaps they are Sun Tzu acolytes: "Never assume your enemy will not atack, make yourself invincible."
15. Post-Party Congress Clean-up in Pyongyang
38north.org · by Martyn Williams · January 22, 2021
16. Kim Yo Jong Stays in the Picture
38north.org · by Martyn Williams · January 22, 2021
A key point: "The Party Congress, along with other political events during the last half of 2020, is shifting North Korean policy priorities away from foreign affairs and diplomatic engagement toward bolstering the country’s defense industry and the developing missiles and WMDs."
Not mentioned in this good analysis is her continued role in the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) and the Propaganda and Agitation Department. I would argue that she has more power in the OGD than she would derive from a Politburo title.
"Insurrection by means of guerrilla bands is the true method of warfare for all nations desirous of emancipating themselves from a foreign yoke. It is invincible, indestructible."
- Giuseppe Mazzini
"In such a society as ours the only possible chance for change, for mobility, for political, economic, and moral flow lies in the tactics of guerrilla warfare, in the use of fictions, of language."
- Kathy Acker
"Be courteous to all, but intimate with few, and let those few be well tried before you give them your confidence - true friendship is a plant of slow growth."
- George Washington
Source... 
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