Small Wars Journal
10/01/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
10/01/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. FDD | Beijing Seeks to Evade U.S. Restrictions on Technology Imports
2. How to Trim the Defense Budget Without Harming U.S. Security
3. The right debate question for Trump, Biden: How do we fight our next war?
4. The Army Rolls Out a New Weapon: Strategic Napping
5. Pandemic has not flattened the 'terrorism curve'
6. China's Leaders Can't Be Trusted | by Chris Patten
7. New Policy Makes U.S. More Competitive Partner
8. Duterte's China gambit fails to deliver the goods
9. House report: U.S. intelligence agencies have failed to adapt to China threat
10. Palantir Awarded $91 Million Contract R&D for the US Army Research Laboratory
11. U.S., Taiwan to team up on infrastructure in pushback against China
12. Attacker Dwell Time: Ransomware's Most Important Metric
13. Social Media Bots: Implications for Special Operations Forces
14. GOP Lawmakers Hammer Trump's Germany Troop Withdrawals
15. Palantir, the controversial data company, makes its Wall Street debut
16. Trump Thinks America Should Go It Alone. Americans Disagree.
17. Pentagon needs 'Gray Zone' weapons
18. After "the War that Never Was"-The Real Beginning
19. US 2020 election: Social media's nightmare scenario
20. It's Raining Blood: Air Force Tests New Way to Resupply Battlefield Medics
21.A Far-Right Militant Group Has Recruited Thousands of Police, Soldiers, and Veterans
1. FDD | Beijing Seeks to Evade U.S. Restrictions on Technology Imports
fdd.org · by Craig Singleton Adjunct Fellow · September 30, 2020
2. How to Trim the Defense Budget Without Harming U.S. Security
Foreign Policy · by Elbridge Colby, Mackenzie Eaglen, Roger Zakheim · September 30, 2020
What does the US want its military to do? We do have an NSS and NDS.
3. The right debate question for Trump, Biden: How do we fight our next war?
The Hill · by Sean McFate, opinion contributor · September 28, 2020
A very important and powerful question from Sean McFate: "So how does the United States fight secretive wars without losing our democratic soul? This is the most important national security question today, not how many F-35s are needed."
My thoughts (which are focused on SOF in IW and Great Power Competition):
- Competition equals Political Warfare
- State on state warfare less likely
- Consider lessons from the OSS to operate in the modern era of the Gray Zone and Political Warfare
- Major theater war will include political warfare and the gray zone.
- Problem
- We face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.
- Solution:
- Learn to lead with influence
- Learn to counter and conduct political warfare campaigns
- Cultural and/or organizational change
- Exploit lessons from the OSS (positive and negative)
4. The Army Rolls Out a New Weapon: Strategic Napping
The New York Times · by Dave Philipps · October 1, 2020
Hmmm....Never pass up a chance to fill your canteen or take a nap! I think all military personnel know this. Have you ever seen how fast a trooper can fall asleep in the back of an aircraft? And "hurry upland wait" is translated as "hurry up and nap."
5. Pandemic has not flattened the 'terrorism curve'
asiatimes.com · by More by Dnyanesh Kamat · September 29, 2020
Two key points:
The factors that fuel terrorism are still very much in play worldwide. Under the guise of combating Covid-19, governments from Tanzania to Colombia and from India to Sudan are clamping down on civil liberties. This will fray the unwritten contract between societies and law-enforcement agencies, the bedrock upon which intelligence agencies rely to block terrorist incidents.
In some instances, ruling regimes have actively fed identity politics and fueled ancient tribal hatreds as a way of diverting attention away from their mishandling of the pandemic. This has damaged the social fabric in these countries and could be fertile ground for terrorists.
Pandemic has not flattened the 'terrorism curve'
Amid the fight against Covid-19, some governments have actively fed identity politics and fueled ancient tribal hatreds
6. China's Leaders Can't Be Trusted | by Chris Patten
project-syndicate.org · by Chris Patten · September 28, 2020
The bottom line: "One thing is clear: the world cannot trust Xi's dictatorship. The sooner we recognize this and act together, the sooner the Beijing bullies will have to behave better. The world will be safer and more prosperous for it."
7. New Policy Makes U.S. More Competitive Partner
defense.gov · by C. Todd Lopez
Defense Security Cooperation Agency.
8. Duterte's China gambit fails to deliver the goods
asiatimes.com · by Richard Javad Heydarian · September 30, 2020
I guess you cannot trust Chinese leadership.
9. House report: U.S. intelligence agencies have failed to adapt to China threat
Axios · by Zachary Basu
The 37 page report (with some redactions) can be downloaded here.
10. Palantir Awarded $91 Million Contract R&D for the US Army Research Laboratory
news.clearancejobs.com · by Katie Keller · September 29, 2020
Follow the contractor information to know the direction of the US military. Even recent reporting on Palantir and the Army's relationship with DCGS-A and Palantir there is some irony in this contract.
11. U.S., Taiwan to team up on infrastructure in pushback against China
Reuters · by Ben Blanchard and Jeanny Kao · September 30, 2020
Great Power Competition includes political and economic warfare.
12. Attacker Dwell Time: Ransomware's Most Important Metric
darkreading.com
13. Social Media Bots: Implications for Special Operations Forces
96 page report here · by Megan K. McBride, Zack Gold, and Kasey Stricklin
14. GOP Lawmakers Hammer Trump's Germany Troop Withdrawals
defenseone.com · by Katie Bo Williams
This is not something you want to say in a Congressional hearing: "Acting Defense Undersecretary for Policy James Anderson repeatedly told lawmakers that he was unable to answer detailed questions about the withdrawal, both because he was not involved in the initial decision-making process and because planning is ongoing and many decisions simply have not yet been made."
15. Palantir, the controversial data company, makes its Wall Street debut
CNN · by Sara Ashley O'Brien, CNN Business
16. Trump Thinks America Should Go It Alone. Americans Disagree.
Bloomberg · by Hal Brands · September 30, 2020
Trust the wisdom of the American people. But these three fault lines are troubling. And third I think stems from a lack of understanding about what is American exceptionalism. (And as an aside I think many proponents would be shocked to know the connection of American exceptionalism to the US Communist PArty, Stalin, and the USSR - see this article. But few of us know our history. I also wrote an article "Putin is Afraid of American Exceptionalism" with my views on the concept.
Key Points from Professor Brands:
And overwhelming majorities of both parties favor giving precedence to Washington's relations with its Indo-Pacific allies over its ties with China. The American public is warming up to great-power competition.
Look a bit more closely, however, and a broad consensus starts to fray. In particular, there are three partisan fault lines in how Americans view world affairs.
Trump Thinks America Should Go It Alone. Americans Disagree.
Polling shows three major fault lines between the parties on foreign policy.
17. Pentagon needs 'Gray Zone' weapons
washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz
What are "gray zone weapons?" How about a strategy first and some campaign plans to conduct political warfare in the gray zone?
Excerpt: "Gray Zone" warfare capabilities include better cyberweapons, information warfare capabilities, economic and commercial warfare tools and new multidomain military systems, the Pentagon advisory panel stated in an executive summary.
18. After "the War that Never Was"-The Real Beginning
usni.org · September 29, 2020
Time for a little fiction to spur some creativity and critical thinking (as well as being entertaining).
19. US 2020 election: Social media's nightmare scenario
BBC · by James Clayton
Be afraid.. Be very afraid. We should all be.
20. It's Raining Blood: Air Force Tests New Way to Resupply Battlefield Medics
news.yahoo.com · September 29, 2020
That is an interesting title for an article with an important capability.
21. A Far-Right Militant Group Has Recruited Thousands of Police, Soldiers, and Veterans
The Atlantic · by Mike Giglio
This will stir up a lot of ire on the proverbial "both sides."
----------------------
The truth is cruel, but it can be loved, and it makes free those who have loved it."
- George Santayana
"It is one thing to show a man that he is in error, and another to put him in possession of truth."
- John Locke
"A single lie destroys a whole reputation of integrity."
- Baltasar Gracian
10/01/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
10/01/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. North Korea prepares to flex its muscle at military parade
2. New virus cases drop below 100 again, but country braces for potential flare-up during extended holiday
3. As Kim wooed Trump with ‘love letters,’ he kept building his nuclear capability, intelligence shows
4. U.S., S. Korea form 'better foundation' for declaration of war's end: S. Korean envoy
5. North Korea has tried to hack 11 officials of the UN Security Council
6. Pompeo urges religious leaders to speak up for people in N. Korea
7. An apology ricochets in the Koreas
8. Kim Jong Un statement 'not an apology.' U.N. investigator says
9. Handwriting Checks for Whole Neighborhoods After ‘Down with Party Officials’ Graffiti Appears in North Korea
10. N. Korea's spy chief demoted to colonel general
11. Defector rape case highlights widespread abuse of North Korean women
12. Coronavirus Changes South Korean’s Thanksgiving Traditions
13. The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) Launches Its Third Report Based on Satellite Imagery of North Korea’s Kyo-hwa-so No. 12, Jŏngŏ-ri – Update 3
14. India’s Ties to North Korea: Can New Delhi Overcome Challenges to Its Maturing Engagement?
15. North Korea admits ‘faults’ in its fight against Covid-19.
16. Donald Trump Would Continue to Try and Talk With North Korea in a Second Term
17. North Korea: If Reelected, Donald Trump Needs a Step-by-Step Deal With Kim Jong-Un
18. Kim Jong Un’s New Look Is More Man Than Superhuman
1. North Korea prepares to flex its muscle at military parade
DW · by Jon Shelton
And give us a fireworks show as well. (Recall Kim Yo-jong asking for a DVD of the US independence Day celebration. There have been reports that there will be a huge fireworks show on October 10th as well as the parade)
But of course we will be on the lookout for any unusual military activity.
2. New virus cases drop below 100 again, but country braces for potential flare-up during extended holiday
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · October 1, 2020
3. As Kim wooed Trump with ‘love letters,’ he kept building his nuclear capability, intelligence shows
The Washington Post · September 30, 2020
Our good friend Chunn Yung-woo makes an important point - the regime has continued to develop nuclear weapons. We should be under no illusion the regime intends to give them up (but we should still give him the opportunity to do so but without lifting sanctions.).
Excerpts:
“There have been a lot of efforts, but in substance, I see no progress at all,” said Chun Yung-woo, a former South Korea national security adviser who participated in nuclear talks with North Korea in the mid-2000s.
“North Korea is more dangerous. It has more nuclear warheads, or fissile materials with which to produce nuclear weapons,” Chun said. “In that regard, at least, North Korea has more capability to destroy peace on the Korean Peninsula. I wouldn’t describe that as any progress.”
4. U.S., S. Korea form 'better foundation' for declaration of war's end: S. Korean envoy
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 1, 2020
This excerpt must be fully understood.: "...declare an official end to the 1950-53 Korean War, which he said would provide a security guarantee the North has long sought..." An end of war declaration is not a security guarantee (for either the north or South). The security guarantee the regime demands is not found on a piece of paper. The regime wants an end to the US "hostile policy" as the security guarantee. But it is the definition of the end of the US hostile policy that should concern us. It is an end of the ROK/US alliance, removal of US troops from the peninsula, an end of extended deterrence and the nuclear umbrella over the ROK and Japan. This is one of the main objectives of the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy.
5. North Korea has tried to hack 11 officials of the UN Security Council
ZDNet · by Catalin Cimpanu
The regime's "all-purpose sword" strike again. The regime's cyber capability is one of its most practical and important capabilities. North Korean cyber capabilities (or its all-purpose sword) provide key support to the Kim family regime (North Korean leadership) and an integral part of its strategy in the gray zone (below the threshold do strategic response). The regime controls all cyber activities, there are no private entities or rogue elements conducting cyber operations. While we focus on the North Korean nuclear and missile threats and the 4th largest Army in the world, its cyber capabilities pose an immediate threat and play a key role in supporting the regime with funds, with information through espionage, subversive activities against the South, and with the capabilities that someday may be used for advanced operations during conflict or when the regime is desperate to achieve strategic effects against South Korea or the US. Most importantly, it poses a threat to governments, international organizations, the military, banks, and businesses, the media, think tanks and academia, and individual citizens. We all must be vigilant.
The question is what are we going to do about it?
6. Pompeo urges religious leaders to speak up for people in N. Korea
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 1, 2020
We must remain focused on human rights as well as security.
7. An apology ricochets in the Koreas
The Christian Science Monitor · by The Christian Science Monitor · September 30, 2020
This is a non-apology apology. No one should be duped by the regime's political warfare strategy.
8. Kim Jong Un statement 'not an apology.' U.N. investigator says
upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim· September 30, 2020
Correct.
9. Handwriting Checks for Whole Neighborhoods After ‘Down with Party Officials’ Graffiti Appears in North Korea
rfa.org· by Hyemin Son · September 30, 2020
Low level perhaps but an indicator of resistance potential.
More importantly it brings to light the answer to Dr. Jung Park's question: Who does Kim fear more, the US or the korean people living in the north? It is the Korean people he fears the most.
Thanks to RFA for this report as this is reporting that can only come from a handful of media organizations (VOA being another one).
10. N. Korea's spy chief demoted to colonel general
en.yna.co.kr · by 김광태 · September 30, 2020
I wish we had a Colonel General rank! But the point is he is still a Colonel General and does not appear to be sent to a gulag.
11. Defector rape case highlights widespread abuse of North Korean women
The Telegraph · by Nicola Smith
Such a tragedy. South Korea must protect escapees from this kind of abuse. Their human rights must be protected.
12. Coronavirus Changes South Korean’s Thanksgiving Traditions
learningenglish.voanews.com
This is quite a change for Korea. One thing I know from my time in Korea is never to travel on Chuseok (or the Lunar New Year).
As an aside I am sending this to call attention to one of the many important roles of VOA and that is providing some English language exposure to target audiences.
13. The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) Launches Its Third Report Based on Satellite Imagery of North Korea’s Kyo-hwa-so No. 12, Jŏngŏ-ri – Update 3
hrnk.org
One of the many important contributions the Committee For Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) makes is research on and exposure of the north Korean prison system. Those who follow north Korea (in government, in international organizations, and in academia) benefit greatly from this research.
The 59 page report can be downloaded here and it is described in the press release.
Two key points:
“A former prisoner provided HRNK with a gruesome account of the crematory operation: ‘Every Monday, we burned the corpses at Bul-mang Mountain. There’s a place that looked like a house, and we piled up the corpses in the round tank in it.’”
“According to Bermudez, ‘This imagery report takes us another step closer to understanding the cruel system of imprisonment in North Korea and highlights a real place where we know people are suffering beyond imagination. The atrocities committed throughout North Korea’s vast system of unlawful imprisonment, including Kyo-hwa-so No. 12, require the immediate attention of the international community.’"
14. India’s Ties to North Korea: Can New Delhi Overcome Challenges to Its Maturing Engagement?
38north.org · by Jagannath Panda · September 30, 2020
An unusual relationship.
15. North Korea admits ‘faults’ in its fight against Covid-19.
The New York Times · by Choe Sang-Hun · September 30, 2020
But Kim Jong-un himself will never be blamed. Yet he is responsible. It is his policy choices that make the people suffer.
16. Donald Trump Would Continue to Try and Talk With North Korea in a Second Term
The National Interest · by Miyeon Oh · September 30, 2020
I wish pundits and scholars would stop planting the seeds of a deal to trade US troops in a deal with north Korea. Such a deal would be on a scale of failure that would make Dean Acheson's statement on Korea pale in comparison.
17. North Korea: If Reelected, Donald Trump Needs a Step-by-Step Deal With Kim Jong-Un
The National Interest · by Patricia Schouker · September 30, 2020
How many step-by-step deals have we tried? How many have worked? Why have they failed? One reason and one reason only: The nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy.
18. Kim Jong Un’s New Look Is More Man Than Superhuman
WSJ · by Andrew Jeong
The importance of the Propaganda and Agitation Department. But this comment from our good friend Cheon Seong-whun is a critically important assessment.
---------------
"The truth is cruel, but it can be loved, and it makes free those who have loved it.”
- George Santayana
"It is one thing to show a man that he is in error, and another to put him in possession of truth.”
- John Locke
"A single lie destroys a whole reputation of integrity.”
- Baltasar Gracian
9/30/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
9/30/2020 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. FDD | Don't Trust Kim Jong Un's Unexpected Apology Over Murder of South Korean Official
2. Seoul to promote joint Olympics with North Korea
3. north Korean Speech at the UN General Assembly
4. Defense ministry verified N. Korean order to burn body of dead official: opposition leader
5. American public bucks Trump on troop withdrawals from Korea
6. North Korea on virus threat: 'Under safe and stable control'
7. Asia Today: South Korea has virus jump before holiday period
8. North Korea tells U.N. that now it has 'effective war deterrent' it will focus on economy
9. Nuclear threat against North Korea 'continues unabated', UN ambassador tells Assembly
10. A roundup of FinCEN Files reporting from North America
11. North Korea Arrests 20 Remittance Brokers for Using Illegal Chinese Mobile Phones
12. No Signs North Korea Moving Toward Denuclearization
13. N. Korean IT specialists disguise nationality to earn foreign currency, says UN report
14. Minerals, Minds, and Accommodation: U.S. Options Against China
15. N. Korea places western and eastern coast maritime patrol units on "top combat posture"
16. Kim Jong Un orders military to "rigorously" handle violations of territorial waters
17. North Korean killing of South Korean official deepens internal division
18. Top US diplomat to visit Korea next week amid Seoul's push for peace regime
19. Kim Jong-Un's Apology: Can It Spark a Diplomatic Breakthrough?
20. China Needs to Answer for Its North Korea Policy
21. Kin of South Korean killed by North rebuffs claim he tried to defect
22. Russia and China Reject U.N. Report on North Korean Sanctions Violations
23. South's military overheard order to kill fisheries official
24. Gov't says no shooting-related remarks in initial intelligence
1. FDD | Don't Trust Kim Jong Un's Unexpected Apology Over Murder of South Korean Official
fdd.org · by David Maxwell and Matthew Ha · September 29, 2020
The latest from Mathew Ha and me.
2. Seoul to promote joint Olympics with North Korea
upi.com· by Elizabeth Shim · September 29, 2020
The timing of this could not be worse. Can you say "tone deaf?" I do not think this will go over well with the Korean people in the South.
3. north Korean Speech at the UN General Assembly
Link for Speech
Here are my thoughts:
This is north Korea living up to its political warfare strategy (with Juche characteristics)
It is telling the world how benevolent a country the north is - even though it incarcerates some 200,000 political prisoners in its gulags.
It is criticizing the US and world powers for threatening nK sovereignty.
It has no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons because they are key to protecting the regime (and of course they couch that in terms of defending sovereignty)
It touts peace through strength (President Reagan is turning over in his grave).
It wants all of us to shift our focus to the north's economic development and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Pay no attention to our continuing nuclear and missile development.
It wants to exploit international organizations for its own benefit (following in the footsteps of China).
It wants to use the UN Charter against the US.
It appears to want to be a leader among the non-aligned rogue nations and non-state actors of the world.
4. Defense ministry verified N. Korean order to burn body of dead official: opposition leader
en.yna.co.kr · by 박보람 · September 29, 2020
SIGINT confirmed?
5. American public bucks Trump on troop withdrawals from Korea
Financial Times · by Edward White · September 30, 2020
Some good news (except for the 20%). The American people get the importance of US alliances and deterring war. The presence of US troops in Korea contributes to deterring war on the Korean peninsula which is a national interest of the US because war in Korea will have global effects.
6. North Korea on virus threat: 'Under safe and stable control'
AP · by Ted Anthony and Kim Tong-Hyung · September 29, 2020
north Korea doth protest too much. It is only a matter of time before the regime cannot suppress the information about outbreaks.
7. Asia Today: South Korea has virus jump before holiday period
AP · September 30, 2020
So what happened 10-14 days that is causing this spike? What will it be like in another 2 weeks after Cheusok? (hopefully reports of limited travel will reduce the potential for spikes).
8. North Korea tells U.N. that now it has 'effective war deterrent' it will focus on economy
Reuters · by Michelle Nichols, David Brunnstrom · September 29, 2020
While we focus on the anti-epidemic situation regarding COVID 19 we should remember the other epidemic the regime fears: information proliferation. That epidemic may be under control by getting the South to crack down on the escapees' (defectors) information warfare operations.
But the regime cannot focus on the economy unless it lifts the restrictions on cross border trade and allows the 400+ markets to flourish. That is the economic indicator we must observe. How well are the markets functioning?
9. Nuclear threat against North Korea 'continues unabated', UN ambassador tells Assembly
news.un.org · September 29, 2020
north Korea is a grievance based regime. Everyone is out to get them (starting with the Korean people in the north) to the south to the US. Everybody is a threat to the Kim family regime in Kim Jong-un's mind. Then again there is the maxim: "Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean that they aren't out to get you."
10. A roundup of FinCEN Files reporting from North America
icij.org · by Spencer Woodman · September 29, 2020
This is pretty amazing. Who would have thought financial files could be so "entertaining:" Excerpt: North Korean cash flowing through U.S. banks, the complex schemes of Russian money launderers, adult film actors seeing their savings disappear in an offshore banking scandal - these are just a few of the revelations made by North American partners on the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists FinCEN Files investigation published last week.
11. North Korea Arrests 20 Remittance Brokers for Using Illegal Chinese Mobile Phones
rfa.org· by Sewon Kim
Important implications here from information warfare to internal corruption. Excerpts: "The source said that some of the arrested phone brokers are city or provincial secret intelligence agents, who were supposed to have been the "eyes and ears of the state," but acted as phone brokers themselves for years." They made money by selling internal information to South Korea or by working as remittance brokers while on duty as secret intelligence agents," the source said."
12. No Signs North Korea Moving Toward Denuclearization
voanews.com · By Margaret Besheer · September 29, 2020
I hate to beat the dead horse but I have to repeat my beliefs:
The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and security threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
13. N. Korean IT specialists disguise nationality to earn foreign currency, says UN report
donga.com · September 30, 2020
There is still a lot to parse from the UN PAnel of Experts report. But the regime's cyber capabilities and activities are critical to survival and is a domain in which we must fight the regime because it is doing damage to countries, businesses, and people around the world.
14. Minerals, Minds, and Accommodation: U.S. Options Against China
divergentoptions.org · by Peter Foran · September 30, 2020
Three options for consideration:
Option #1: The U.S. could attempt to carefully decouple its critical minerals relationship and defense-industrial base needs in a neo-Hamiltonian way, referring to the Secretary of State Alexander Hamilton and his belief in infant industry support and fostering research and development to build competitive industries.
Option #2: The United States creates a sister channel to Radio Free Asia that exclusively highlights the horrors of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Option #3: A perhaps counterintuitive option involves the U.S. could taking a long-term accommodation strategy.
15. N. Korea places western and eastern coast maritime patrol units on "top combat posture"
dailynk.com· by Jeong Tae Joo · September 29, 2020
Remember that it was an innocent South Korean civil servant who was brutally murdered by the nKPA. But it is the regime that is raising tensions with the intention to place the blame on the South.
16. Kim Jong Un orders military to "rigorously" handle violations of territorial waters
dailynk.com · by Jang Seul Gi· September 29, 2020
A not so veiled threat to the South.
17. North Korean killing of South Korean official deepens internal division
The Korea Times · September 29, 2020
We should remember that a key part of the regime's strategy is subversion of the ROK. The murder of an innocent South Korean civil servant is contributing to the regime's subversion line of effort.
What is subversion? The undermining of the power and authority of an established system or institution.
As in: "the ruthless subversion of democracy"
The Kim family regime engages in active subversion of the ROK as well as the ROK/US Alliance.
18. Top US diplomat to visit Korea next week amid Seoul's push for peace regime
The Korea Times · September 30, 2020
I hope there is a frank discussion about the strategic assumptions on which alliance policy and strategy is based. Does Kim Jong-un seek peace in line with President Moon's vision? This assumption must be examined and it if is proven to false then the alliance policy and strategy must be adjusted.
19. Kim Jong-Un's Apology: Can It Spark a Diplomatic Breakthrough?
The National Interest · by Daniel R. DePetris · September 29, 2020
Diplomatic breakthrough based on murder? Do not be duped by the regime's non-apology apology.
This is quite a conclusion: "In the end, the U.S. possesses more than enough military power to live with a nuclear-armed North Korea. What it can't afford is an environment where tension is considered normal along the most militarized border in the world."
20. China Needs to Answer for Its North Korea Policy
WSJ · by John Bolton· September 29, 2020
Ambassador Bolton's warning to China and challenge to the US: "North Korea hasn't pursued nuclear weapons in a vacuum. China knows it, and it needs to understand that the U.S. knows it too."
21. Kin of South Korean killed by North rebuffs claim he tried to defect
NBC News · by Reuters · September 29, 2020
One of the tragedies surrounding this murder is the denigration of the victim.
22. Russia and China Reject U.N. Report on North Korean Sanctions Violations
freebeacon.com · by Jack Beyrer · September 29, 2020
But booth countries have representatives on the Panel of. Experts. They helped water down the report. But even with their obstructionist efforts the report still shows Russian and Chinese complicity in north Korean sanctions evasion.
23. South's military overheard order to kill fisheries official
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com · by Han Youngik and Ser My-Ja
Again, the military confirmed SIGINT capabilities.
24. Gov't says no shooting-related remarks in initial intelligence
en.yna.co.kr · by 김광태 · September 30, 2020
You do not need a specific order to kill if the rules of engagement, standing orders and SOPs are to
shoot infiltrators. To the ROKG, please do not water down this murder.
--------------------
"Unconventional Warfare (UW) ... remains uniquely Special Forces'. It is the soul of Special Forces: the willingness to accept its isolation and hardships defines the Special Forces Soldier. Its training is both the keystone and standard of Special Forces Training: it has long been an article of faith, confirmed in over forty years of worldwide operations, that "If you can do the UW missions, you can do all others." The objective of UW and Special Forces' dedication to it is expressed in Special Forces' motto: De Oppresso Liber (to free the oppressed)"
- Robert M. Gates, Remarks at dedication
of OSS Memorial, 12 June 1992
"And where is the Prince who can afford to so cover his country with troops for its defense, as that ten thousand men descending from the clouds, might not in many places do an infinite deal of mischief, before a force could be brought together to repel them?"
- Benjamin Franklin
"We have to face the fact that either all of us are going to die together or we are going to learn to live together and if we are to live together we have to talk."
- Eleanor Roosevelt
9/30/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
9/30/2020 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs
1. How China Is Taking Over International Organizations, One Vote at a Time
2. Defense Experts Throw Warning Flags As Congress Mulls Tighter Buy-American Rules
3. Out: 'information warfare.' In: 'information advantage'
4. How the US Army Fits into America's Indo-Pacific Strategy
5. McMaster: Strategic competitors probably view the US as 'weak'
6. Deepfake Putin is here to warn Americans about their self-inflicted doom
7. Opinion | China's Xi is doubling down on genocide
8. Thinking Strategically About Sino-American Crisis Management Mechanisms
9. 'Deepfake' Political Ads Banned At Last Minute By Local Fox, CNN and MSNBC Affiliates
10. Vaccine Chaos Is Looming
11. Chinese Communist party asserts greater control over private enterprise
12. A Potentially Deadly Blow to NATO
13. How new network tools can help find paratroopers faster and improve situational awareness
14. QAnon, Blood Libel, and the Satanic Panic
15. The Façade of Chinese Foreign Policy Coherence
16. The Navy has updated the SEAL ethos with gender-neutral language
17. New book recreates harrowing siege of Green Beret camp in 1965 Vietnam
18. Air Force to Reduce Tuition Assistance for Troops
19. The Dumbass Chronicles: Lessons Learned from a Lifetime of Idiocy
20. Why Men Love the Story of the Great Escape
1. How China Is Taking Over International Organizations, One Vote at a Time
WSJ · by Yaroslav Trofimov, Drew Hinshaw and Kate O'Keeffe· September 29, 2020
The international organization space is a domain of Chinese political warfare. It is key terrain for its strategy. My assessment of Chinese political warfare strategy: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.
2. Defense Experts Throw Warning Flags As Congress Mulls Tighter Buy-American Rules
defenseone.com · by Marcus Weisgerber
3. Out: 'information warfare.' In: 'information advantage'
c4isrnet.com · by Mark Pomerleau · September 29, 2020
More definition and terminology paralysis? Rearranging the deckchairs? One thing we are very good at is coming up with new names.
My thoughts: Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian philosopher of war so often cited here at War on the Rocks, wisely counseled that before you embark on war you must first understand it. In American military circles, we have flipped that on its head and instead first rush to brand it with an acronym-friendly term to fight it before we truly grasp the characteristics of the conflict. The great strategic thinker, Colin Gray once wrote "The American defense community is especially prone to capture by the latest catchphrase, the new-sounding spin on an ancient idea which as jargon separates those who are truly expert from the lesser breeds without the jargon."
4. How the US Army Fits into America's Indo-Pacific Strategy
thediplomat.com· by Francis P Sempa · September 29, 2020
Excerpt: "Finkelstein's article should dispel the commonplace notion that American power and credibility in the Indo-Pacific wrests exclusively on U.S. naval and air power. The geography of the Indo-Pacific certainly requires a strong U.S. naval and air presence to project power and protect its security interests in the region. The series of island chains and marginal seas running along Asia's east coast from Siberia to Indochina highlight the geopolitical importance of sea and air power. But Finkelstein contends that future deployments to the region should adhere closely to the "multi-domain operations concept."
5. McMaster: Strategic competitors probably view the US as 'weak'
militarytimes.com · by Diana Stancy Correll · September 29, 2020
We should reflect on LTG McMaster's thoughts here.
6. Deepfake Putin is here to warn Americans about their self-inflicted doom
Technology Review · by Karen Hao
Video at the link.
7. Opinion | China's Xi is doubling down on genocide
The Washington Post · by Editorial Board · September 29, 2020
The true nature of the CCP in China.
8. Thinking Strategically About Sino-American Crisis Management Mechanisms
warontherocks.com · by Jacob Stokes and Zach Cooper · September 30, 2020
Key point: "We agree with the need for better communications between the United States and China. The question that remains unclear, however, is which types of mechanisms would actually decrease the likelihood of conflict and avoid inadvertent escalation. Answering this question requires assessing what mechanisms already exist, explaining where they fall short, and asking whether new mechanisms would work better. This article starts to address these issues, providing some recommendations for improving crisis management along with a healthy dose of practical caution about what it will take for these efforts to succeed in their overarching goal of preventing conflict."
9. 'Deepfake' Political Ads Banned At Last Minute By Local Fox, CNN and MSNBC Affiliates
mediapost.com · by Larissa Faw· September 29, 2020
Interesting. The videos are fascinating and well done.
10. Vaccine Chaos Is Looming
defenseone.com · by Sarah Zhang
A sober warning: "The good news is that more deployable vaccines are moving fast through the pipeline too. The race to a vaccine has dominated hopes for an end to the pandemic. But the first COVID-19 vaccine may not ultimately be the most important COVID-19 vaccine."
11. Chinese Communist party asserts greater control over private enterprise
Financial Times · by Tom Mitchell · September 28, 2020
One key point: "Under the new guidelines, party committees that previously wielded little power at private companies are supposed to play a role in personnel appointments and other important decisions."
12. A Potentially Deadly Blow to NATO
defenseone.com · by R.D. Hooker, Jr.
13. How new network tools can help find paratroopers faster and improve situational awareness
c4isrnet.com · by Andrew Eversden · September 29, 2020
Find paratroopers? Technology is great but we should never forget the rule of LGOP - Little Groups of Paratroopers.
Use the technology but do not forget these rules and do not lose this spirit.
This effect is known as the Rule of LGOPs. This is, in its purest form, small groups of 19- year old American Paratroopers. They are well-trained, armed-to-the-teeth and lack serious adult supervision.
They collectively remember the Commander's intent as "March to the sound of the guns and kill anyone who is not dressed like you..." ...or something like that. Happily they go about the day's work...
The Rule of LGOPs is instructive:
- They shared a common vision
- The vision was simple, easy to understand, and unambiguous
- They were trained to improvise and take the initiative
- They need to be told what to do; not how to do it
14. QAnon, Blood Libel, and the Satanic Panic
New Republic · by Talia Lavin · September 29, 2020
More on this sick conspiracy.
15. The Façade of Chinese Foreign Policy Coherence
thestrategybridge.org · September 29, 2020
Recommendation:
To be more effective, U.S. foreign policy responses to China's rise need to recognize the fragmentation of and sometimes contradictory actions of Chinese foreign policy entities. Antagonistic zero-sum competition with China only serves to limit its options, pushing it to act in the aggressive manner of the belligerent rising power American policymakers fear it already is.
China's Belt and Road Initiative projects may increase some states' dependency on Beijing, but they are not designed to create long-lasting, deep ties between Chinese actors and their counterparts. Conversely, many Indo-Pacific states are seeking greater balancing cooperation in response to recent aggression from Beijing. Recognizing the problems with its current blinders, the U.S. should begin developing a new strategy focused on enhanced regional engagement to dampen China's latent hegemonic capacities in Asia, without the overt confrontation that would force Beijing to play the role of a hostile rising power its grand strategy narrative of strength and power demands.
16. The Navy has updated the SEAL ethos with gender-neutral language
Business Insider · by Paul Szoldra
17. New book recreates harrowing siege of Green Beret camp in 1965 Vietnam
taskandpurpose.com · by Matt Soergel
18. Air Force to Reduce Tuition Assistance for Troops
airforcemag.com · by Jennifer-Leigh Oprihory · September 29, 2020
This is probably a tweet away from being overruled and fixed.
19. The Dumbass Chronicles: Lessons Learned from a Lifetime of Idiocy
soflete.com · by September 29, 2020
Some humble self criticism. We should all be self-reflective.
20. Why Men Love the Story of the Great Escape
The Art of Manliness · by Brett and Kate McKay · September 24, 2020
Now I understand why I loved the great Escape. From my childhood there are four movies that influenced me. My father took me to each of them:
Lawrence of Arabia
Von Ryan's Express
The Great Escape
The Green Berets
---------------
“Unconventional Warfare (UW) ... remains uniquely Special Forces'. It is the soul of Special Forces: the willingness to accept its isolation and hardships defines the Special Forces Soldier. Its training is both the keystone and standard of Special Forces Training: it has long been an article of faith, confirmed in over forty years of worldwide operations, that "If you can do the UW missions, you can do all others." The objective of UW and Special Forces' dedication to it is expressed in Special Forces' motto: De Oppresso Liber (to free the oppressed)"
- Robert M. Gates, Remarks at dedication
of OSS Memorial, 12 June 1992
"And where is the Prince who can afford to so cover his country with troops for its defense, as that ten thousand men descending from the clouds, might not in many places do an infinite deal of mischief, before a force could be brought together to repel them?"
- Benjamin Franklin
"We have to face the fact that either all of us are going to die together or we are going to learn to live together and if we are to live together we have to talk."
- Eleanor Roosevelt
9/29/2020 News & Commentary - National Security
9/29/2020 News & Commentary - National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. As repression mounts, China under Xi Jinping feels increasingly like North Korea
2. Trump administration orders assessment on bolstering nuclear warheads as talks with Russia stall
3. Trump nominated for Nobel Peace Prize by Australian law professors for doctrine against endless wars
4. Techie Software Soldier Spy
5. Were they lost students or inept spies for China?
6. The Joint Force – SOF relationship: support roles in the resurgence of great power competition
7. Why special operations? A risk-based theory
8. Xi and Modi: the psychological duel between Asia's strongmen
9. America’s military deserves timely funding from Congress
10. US considers moving base from Turkey to Greece: the Times
11. Cyber warfare: China is helping Pakistani hackers launch cyber attacks on India
12. Zhenhua data leak exposes China's new 'hybrid warfare'
13. Joe Biden nominated for Nobel Peace Prize, joining Trump, Putin
14. Major hospital system hit with cyberattack, potentially largest in U.S. history
15. Washington’s arms control delusions and bluffs
16. Assessing how countries can compete with Chinese hybrid tactics below the threshold of armed conflict
17. Falling into the adaptation gap
18. FBI & CISA issue another warning about 2020 U.S. election disinformation
19. Cyberattack could trigger Article 5 response, NATO deputy secretary warns
20. Marine head warns Americans 'not sensitized' to likely high US casualties of a WWII-like future war
21. Obituary: CSM Parry Leonard Baer
1. As repression mounts, China under Xi Jinping feels increasingly like North Korea
Washington Post · Anna Fifield · September 28, 2020
Oh, the irony. For years, everyone (including China) has been calling for North Korea to make Chinese style reforms. In reality China has been adopting North Korean population and resources control measures.
2. Trump administration orders assessment on bolstering nuclear warheads as talks with Russia stall
Politico · Daniel Lippman, Bryan Bender, & Lara Seligman · September 28, 2020
Negotiating hardball?
3. Trump nominated for Nobel Peace Prize by Australian law professors for doctrine against endless wars
Newsweek · by Matthew Impelli · September 28, 2020
I did not know we had such a doctrine.
4. Techie Software Soldier Spy
New York Magazine · by Sharon Weinberger · September 28, 2020
This is quite an expose. As I recall, the DCGS-A versus Palantir debate was that the comparison was apples and oranges and Palantir could not do what DCGS-A was supposed to do. Of course, as it turned out, it seems DCGS-A could not do what it was touted to do either. I also recall that Palantir could have been integrated into DCSGS-A, but the Army supposedly did not want to pay the price of the contract Palantir demanded.
5. Were They Lost Students or Inept Spies for China?
Foreign Policy · by Eric Fish · September 28, 2020
I think one of the concepts of the thousand grains of sand is that the grains of sand are not professionally trained. That is supposed to allow them to exploit a "lost student" defense.
6. The Joint Force–SOF relationship: support roles in the resurgence of great power competition
Marine Corps Gazette · by LtCol Brandon Turner & Maj Paul Bailey · January, 2020
7. Why special operations? A risk-based theory
CNA · by Jonathan Schroden · September, 2020
We have wrestled with this for a long time. The DOD definition is probably the best there is (or is at least sufficient to describe Special Operations).
But the US use of special operations is very broad and, in fact may, be too broad for a single overarching theory. This paper focuses on risk in special operations, which is a useful method and is critically important, but I am not sure if it is sufficient for a special operations theory. As an aside, I consider three areas of risk versus John's two: risk to the mission, risk to the force, and political risk.
My criticism is that this report pays insufficient attention to unconventional warfare, foreign internal defense, psychological operations, and civil affairs (though he correctly notes missions and activities can change over time and are insufficient for establishing an overarching theory).
It uses the standard of the Bin Laden for assessing the theory.
The report analyzes Admiral McRaven's theory of special operations, which he rightly calls a theory of direct action (or, as some would say, the hyper conventional direct action raid), as well as those of Roger Spulak, Harry Yarger, Richard Rubright, and Thomas Searle (a common theme here is that the Joint Special Operations University is doing some of the leading research and publication on theories of special operations). He does devote nearly three pages to William “Dave” Driver's and Bruce E. DeFeyter's NPS thesis on a theory of unconventional warfare ,which is described as an attempt to mirror Admiral McRaven's theories.
I would have recommended he include Mark Boyatt's work on SF and UW and "through, with, and by." (of which COL Boyatt is the father).
My thinking somewhat parallels that of Schroden, though I have not put forth a theory of special operations. The difference between us is that, while he focuses on the hyper conventional direct raid as the foundation for a special operation theory (or at least the standard with which to assess it), I focus on UW as the foundational aspect of special operations.
My description of special operations includes the two SOF "trinities" and the no fail mission requirement with the foundation for the trinities being "UW thinking."
UW thinking informs everything SF/SOF should do.
UW is fundamentally problem solving; using unique, non-doctrinal and non-conventional methods, techniques, people, equipment to solve (or assist in solving) complex political-military problems.
UW is fundamentally about influencing behavior of target audiences (which can include a population, a segment of the population, a political structure, or a military force); therefore, it includes an integral action arm of IO/PSYOP/CA.
The Two SOF "Trinities":
1. Irregular Warfare
2. Unconventional Warfare
3. Support to Political Warfare
The Comparative advantage of SOF:
1. Governance
2. Influence
3. Support to indigenous forces and populations
With exquisite capabilities for the no fail CT and CP national missions
My recommendation for a follow-on report would be to compare Jonathan's risk construct to selected UW and FID focused operations. I think his risk analysis is an important contribution to thinking about SOF theory.
8. Xi and Modi: the psychological duel between Asia's strongmen
World Crunch · by Ajai Shukla · by September 28, 2020
9. America’s military deserves timely funding from Congress
Defense News · by Bradley Bowman & Maj. Scott Adamson · September 28, 2020
Another continuing resolution to defend America. I would quibble with the title and say it is America that deserves timely funding of the military from Congress.
10. US considers moving base from Turkey to Greece: the Times
AMN · by News Desk · September 29, 2020
Will the Greeks allow nuclear weapons on their soil? This will be quite a move. I have not heard anything about this.
11. Cyber warfare: China is helping Pakistani hackers launch cyber attacks on India
News 18 · by Shouvik Das · September 29, 2020
Though not surprising, we should be very concerned with China providing cyber capabilities to hostile countries (and perhaps to non-state actors as well).
12. Zhenhua data leak exposes China's new 'hybrid warfare'
DW · by Deutsche Well · September 29, 2020
Another way I think we can describe the security challenge of the 21st century: we face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.
13. Joe Biden nominated for Nobel Peace Prize, joining Trump, Putin
Newsweek · by Jacob Jarvis · September 29, 2020
What is this? A competition? Trump's three nominations to Biden's one? I am afraid the Nobel Peace Prize may be losing its legitimacy.
14. Major hospital system hit with cyberattack, potentially largest in U.S. history
NBC News · by Kevin Collier · September 28, 2020
No attribution but North Korea's past ransomware acts are mentioned in the article.
15. Washington’s arms control delusions and bluffs
Defense One · by Steven Pifer · September 28, 2020
The title says it all. A scathing critique of the administration's arms control efforts.
16. Assessing how countries can compete with Chinese hybrid tactics below the threshold of armed conflict
Divergent Options · by William Freer · September 28, 2020
Again, the challenge we face in the 21st century: we face threats from political warfare strategies supported by hybrid military approaches.
17. Falling into the Adaptation Gap
War On the Rocks · by David Barno and Nora Bensahel · September 29, 2020
18. FBI & CISA Issue Another Warning About 2020 U.S. Election Disinformation
Lawfare · by Tia Sewell · September 28, 2020
Here is a link to yesterday's new PSA form the FBI and CISA.
There should be no question how our adversaries are trying to undermine our democratic republic and the legitimacy of our election process. That should unify us but instead it plays right into their hands because we remain divided on this issue.
19. Cyberattack could trigger Article 5 response, NATO deputy secretary warns
UPI · by Ed Adamczyk · September 28, 2020
An important question.
20. Marine head warns Americans 'not sensitized' to likely high US casualties of a WWII-like future war
American Military News · by Ryan Morgan · September 28, 2020
21. Obituary: CSM Parry Leonard Baer
Gettysburg Times · September 28, 2020
The loss of another great American. I was proud to serve with him at USASOC.
“Just because you do not take an interest in politics doesn't mean politics won't take an interest in you!"
- Pericles
"Virtue is a state of war, and to live in it we have always to combat with ourselves.”
- Jean-Jacques Rousseau
"The door for intelligence work opened for me when I undertook my first secret mission while on my honeymoon in Japan in 1919. The United States Government asked me to take a two-month trip to Siberia to report on the anti-Bolshevik movement in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution. Well, it wasn't your usual honeymoon, but Mrs. Donovan was very understanding. The mission was successful and opened doors to many more missions for the government. I was heading down the intelligence path and I was loving it”
- Wild Bill Donovan
Source... 
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Lebanon is ready for US-mediated talks with Israel to resolve a long-standing maritime border dispute, the speaker of Lebanon’s parliament, Nabih Berri, said. The two nations are technically in a state of war. 
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