Small Wars Journal
03/17/2021 News & Commentary – National Security
03/17/2021 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Russia, Iran sought to influence 2020 election, but no foreign government tried to change votes, U.S. says
2. Blinken blasts 'aggressive' China; Austin reaffirms U.S. deterrence on Korean peninsula
3. FDD | Joe Biden Shouldn’t Return to the Iran Deal
4. Opinion | What’s at stake in the first big meeting of top Biden administration and Chinese officials by John R. Bolton
5. Upgraded Iron Dome Defeats Drones & Rockets In Test
6. Top US Commander Warns 'Front Line' With China Now South of Border
7. More Americans than ever view China as greatest US enemy: Gallup
8. 'Three Warfares': U.S. pummeled by covert disinformation war waged by Russia, China
9. US should tell China: 'Legal warfare' against Taiwan will lead to real war
10. Special Operations Has Been the Easy Button For Far Too Long | SOFREP
11. U.S. Deploys Coast Guard Far From Home to Counter China
12. China's Useful Elitists: Westerners Exploited for Beijing's Domestic Image
13. A confident China seeks to insulate itself from the world
14. The Real Guardrails of Democracy Are Its Citizens
15. What Countries Will Fight Over When Green Energy Dominates
16. Guard officials say troops’ march on Republican congresswoman’s office wasn’t a political statement
17. Spc. Vanessa Guillen case could be Army CID’s ‘Tailhook scandal’
18. US special operations forces train Mozambique troops to counter ISIS threat
19. Train Small Units For Big Wars: Gen. McConville
20. Navy won't remove ‘anti-American’ books from reading list despite House Republicans’ concerns
21. With Chevy halting production of the Camaro, junior enlisted must find purpose elsewhere
22. Operation Kingpin: 27 Minutes at Son Tay
1. Russia, Iran sought to influence 2020 election, but no foreign government tried to change votes, U.S. says
The Washington Post · by Ellen Nakashima · March 16, 2021
You can read the entire ODNI 15 page report here.
Why would China have to conduct election influence operations when Russia and Iran were already doing. And of course China probably looked at the election turbulence and the divisions within the US and decided to adopt the Napoleon position: never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
2. Blinken blasts 'aggressive' China; Austin reaffirms U.S. deterrence on Korean peninsula
Reuters · by Humeyra Pamuk and Hyonhee Shin · March 17, 2021
I am optimistic that we are seeing the best synergy between a SECSTATE and SECDEF than possibly we have ever seen. There appears to be a new Satte-DOD relationship at least at the highest levels. There have been great relationships in the past but they have been more private and behind the scenes. This is a public demonstration of the importance of the 3D's - diplomacy, development, and defense. Yes this is the first major Biden cabinet level trip but I am optimistic that it is indicative of how State and DOD are going to work together in a very public and positive manner.
3. FDD | Joe Biden Shouldn’t Return to the Iran Deal
fdd.org · by Reuel Marc Gerecht · March 16, 2021
Conclusion:
“President Trump never really tried to effect a containment policy against the Islamic Republic, where Washington doggedly tries to roll back the clerical regime’s influence throughout the Middle East, patiently aggravating the theocracy’s internal weaknesses. And he unwisely premised his sanctions regime on obtaining a new, more comprehensive, A-bomb-foreclosing agreement — a fantasy while Iran remains the Islamic Republic. But containment would draw redlines. Billions of dollars wouldn’t be transferred for a short, weak, and narrow nuclear deal. Mass slaughter and terrorism wouldn’t be rewarded.
And the president of the United States could reply to the supreme leader: “I don’t need to return to the JCPOA, either.” In the Middle East’s endless hard-power contests, that would be a momentous next step.”
4. Opinion | What’s at stake in the first big meeting of top Biden administration and Chinese officials by John R. Bolton
The Washington Post · by John R. Bolton · March 15, 2021
Conclusion: “This first high-level Washington-Beijing encounter will not resolve any major issues, and no one expects it to. If Blinken and Sullivan emphasize that Biden is developing a coherent strategy to resolutely oppose China’s objectionable behavior, that alone would be a vital difference from the past 12 years. If not, however, the China question will become an increasingly important focus of America’s domestic political debate, and one where Biden is unlikely to fare well.”
5. Upgraded Iron Dome Defeats Drones & Rockets In Test
breakingdefense.com · by Arie Egozi
This could be very helpful and hopefully a game changer.
6. Top US Commander Warns 'Front Line' With China Now South of Border
voanews.com · by Jamie Dettmer · March 16, 2021
Excerpts:
“U.S. military officials likewise expressed concern about the growing relationship between Chinese operations in Central and South America and transnational crime, described by SOUTHCOM's Faller as the second biggest threat to the U.S. in the Americas."
They market in drugs, and people and guns and illegal mining," Faller said of the various crime organizations that have secured a foothold across the region. "And one of the prime sources that underwrites their efforts is Chinese money laundering."
To counter China, Faller urged lawmakers to help ensure a continued U.S. presence and partnership."It's important that we remain engaged in this hemisphere," he said. "It's our neighborhood, That proximity matters."
"What I hear from my partners is … 'We want to partner with you, but when you're drowning, you need a life ring — you're going to take the life ring from whoever throws it," Faller said.
7. More Americans than ever view China as greatest US enemy: Gallup
The Hill · by Dominick Mastrangelo · March 16, 2021
8. 'Three Warfares': U.S. pummeled by covert disinformation war waged by Russia, China
washingtontimes.com · by Bill Gertz
This "revelation" about the 1st Special Forces Command is not new (except to those just not paying attention). I am glad to see the focus on CHina's three warfares (and unrestricted warfare).
“During the hearing, it was revealed that the 1st Special Operations Group at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, recently created an information warfare center and has plans to create “influence artillery rounds” for its operations.
“I think it’s indicative of what we’re trying to do across the force, which is really elevate this issue,” said Christopher Maier, acting assistant defense secretary for special operations and low-intensity conflict.
“I wouldn’t want to articulate or even speculate on what they mean by an ‘information artillery round,’ but I think it speaks to the idea that information is a part of our war-fighting concept,” he said.
Special Operations Command is the main military unit in charge of “military information support operations,” or MISO.
The Pentagon’s Defense Science Board concluded in a recent study that military activities in “gray zone” warfare are disjointed and unsuccessful. The military needs to build up its soft-power capabilities in areas such as cybersecurity, intelligence and influence operations.
The U.S. military “needs to be more aggressive in the Gray Zone and treat every action as a campaign to deter competitors from behavior counter to U.S. objectives,” the board concluded.
Mr. Sullivan said all nations wage information warfare to a certain degree, but none is engaged in the style of warfare employed by Moscow using both information and disinformation.
Access the 1st Special Forces Command's vision statement here:
INFORMATION WARFARE CENTER (IWC) The IWC is a CONUS-based, operationally-focused standing task force designed to support GCCs, TSOCs, and JIIM partners to identify, expose, exploit, and disrupt adversary influence campaigns. The IWC integrates cross functional capabilities from Psychological Operations, Intelligence, Cyber, Information Operations, and other Information-Related Capabilities to mass effects against global competitors in the Information Environment.
I would argue this is a model that should be considered at the national level
9. US should tell China: 'Legal warfare' against Taiwan will lead to real war
The Hill · by Joseph Bosco · March 16, 2021
Excerpts:
“Legal warfare — the ASL and the proposed national unification law — is meant to place the legal imprimatur on the project. One authorizes the use of force; the other mandates it. They counter Washington’s legal position that the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) obligates the U.S. to help Taiwan defend itself.
China’s laws also are intended to preempt the Taiwan Invasion Prevention Act (TIPA), which would formally authorize the president to take military action to defend Taiwan. The bill died in the last Congress without active Trump administration support and, reintroduced, it now languishes in Congress under Biden.
After playing active diplomatic defense in Anchorage against the Wang/Yang tag team, Blinken and Sullivan need to urge the president to go on offense with America’s own legal warfare before his administration finds itself on kinetic defense in the Indo-Pacific.”
10. Special Operations Has Been the Easy Button For Far Too Long | SOFREP
sofrep.com · John Black · March 11, 2021
Ugh... Take this with a grain of salt. There are some truths but also some misunderstandings. I might use this in my class in "Unconventional Warfare and Special Operations for Policy Makers and Strategists" and have students critique this.
11. U.S. Deploys Coast Guard Far From Home to Counter China
WSJ · by Lucy Craymer and Ben Kesling
The fifth (and unsung) service.
12. China's Useful Elitists: Westerners Exploited for Beijing's Domestic Image
realclearinvestigations.com · by Richard Bernstein
I will just leave this one here for food for thought.
13. A confident China seeks to insulate itself from the world
The Economist · March 13, 2021
Really? Is insulate the right word for self-sufficiency?
Conclusion: “State media hail five-year plans as evidence that China has far-sighted leaders, who bravely chart new paths for the future. But the documents really summarise where the country is already heading. The pursuit of self-sufficiency is well under way, however costly it may prove.”
14. The Real Guardrails of Democracy Are Its Citizens
Foreign Affairs · by Jonathan Schlefer · March 15, 2021
Damn elites.
Conclusion: “Strengthening democracy and countering destructive elite power struggles requires letting the people shape policy proposals, not just choose between prepackaged partisan offerings. When politicians in predominately Catholic Ireland failed to resolve the toxic issue of abortion, they resorted to convoking an assembly of 99 randomly selected citizens to discuss the issue and propose a solution. One who participated told The Guardian, “The Citizens’ Assembly took the debate out of this realm of fearful self-interested calculation and into a forum where evidence and experience could take centre stage.” The assembly recommended revoking the constitutional prohibition on abortion and proposed a law to replace it. In a referendum, voters approved the change by 66.6 percent. Such assemblies are now a mainstay of Irish political life; and the name of the organization that started it all? We the Citizens.”
15. What Countries Will Fight Over When Green Energy Dominates
Bloomberg · by Marc Champion · March 16, 2021
Conclusion: As renewables expand, jobs and revenues in the U.S. and other hybrid nations will become increasingly dependent on decisions that other countries make about whether to go on importing their fossil fuels, according to Rand’s Preston. That’s unlikely to fast-track a more peaceful renewable future. The trick, he says, will be to “enable safe landings for all the countries that have this kind of dependency on existing fossil fuels, but without shutting down the transition altogether.”
16. Guard officials say troops’ march on Republican congresswoman’s office wasn’t a political statement
militarytimes.com · by Leo Shane III · March 16, 2021
Civil-military relations. Lets get it right.
17. Spc. Vanessa Guillen case could be Army CID’s ‘Tailhook scandal’
armytimes.com · by Kyle Rempfer · March 16, 2021
We have to do better.
18. US special operations forces train Mozambique troops to counter ISIS threat
Stars and Stripes· by John Vandiver · by March 16, 2021
19. Train Small Units For Big Wars: Gen. McConville
breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.
I recall preparing for our battalion ARTEPS in Korea. Our battalion commander (then LTC Micthell Zais) was not pleased with our preparations and decided to scrap the training plan and focus only on squad and platoon training rather than collective company and battalion training. We spent a month just working on shoot, move, and communicate skills at the squad and platoon levels. With no training above platoon level we took the ARTEP and passed with flying colors. The commander's rational was if our squads and platoons perform to standard we will be successful.
Small units are key.
20. Navy won't remove ‘anti-American’ books from reading list despite House Republicans’ concerns
militarytimes.com · by J.D. Simkins · March 16, 2021
We have to stop this censorship, cancel culture, culture wars, false patriotism, etc. I side with the CNO.
21. With Chevy halting production of the Camaro, junior enlisted must find purpose elsewhere
militarytimes.com · by J.D. Simkins · March 16, 2021
Oh no. At least Ford will still have the Mustang (which I understand will have an all electric version!)
22. Operation Kingpin: 27 Minutes at Son Tay
operationkingpin.com
Great initiative. I was sorry to learn we just lost CSM Jack Joplin (my first Bn CSM when I was a young SF team leader). We need to honor these great Americans.
Go to the link to see the renderings and to donate to the cause.
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"I don't mind a good fight. For reasons known only to God, I've had quite a few tough ones in my life. But I learned an important lesson along the way: In the end, it matters less that you can fight. What you fight for is the real test."
-John McCain
"I have sacrificed not only my favorite scheme of life, but the softer affections of the heart, and my prospects of domestic happiness, and I am ready to sacrifice my life also, with cheerfulness, if that forfeiture could restore peace and good will among mankind."
- John Paul Jones
"Leadership means firmness, not harshness or bullying; understanding, not weakness; justice, not irresponsible freedom; humaneness, not intolerance; generosity, not selfishness; pride, not egotism"
- Omar N. Bradley
03/17/2021 News & Commentary – Korea
03/17/2021 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. South Korea's ruling party objects to cost-sharing deal for U.S. troops
2. US has assessed North Korea could be preparing to carry out first weapons test since Biden took office
3. U.S. general says North Korea might flight test new ICBM design 'in the near future'
4. N.K. propaganda outlet carries poster depicting S. Korea-U.S. alliance crushed
5. Pro-N.K. paper stresses Cabinet's role as control tower for economic policy
6. US warns North Korea could be planning ICBM test 'in near future' in test for Biden
7. Discussion of nuclearizing S. Korea may help denuclearize N. Korea: U.S. lawmaker
8. S. Korean, U.S. defense chiefs to hold talks on N. Korea, OPCON transition
9. Siding with North Korea (warning to the Moon administration)
10. North Korea holds lecture in border region highlighting need to eliminate anti-socialist acts
11. Blinken says 'authoritarian' N.K. regime continues to commit 'systemic and widespread' abuses
12. Biden's North Korea Problem: Not Just About Nukes or Missiles Anymore
13. Kim Yo Jong Breaks the Silence, but What Does It Mean?
14. [Interview] Former Moon advisor says US should focus on NK nuclear issue, not human rights when it comes to NK
15. Joe Biden's contradictory stance on North Korea promises trouble ahead
16. Privatized War with Tim Shorrock (including COIN and Korea)
1. South Korea's ruling party objects to cost-sharing deal for U.S. troops
upi.com · by Elizabeth Shim · March 16, 2021
As was our concern. People told me that there is nothing to worry about because Moon's party is the majority in the national assembly and they would approve the SMA. But it is his own party members who are objecting.
The SMA is not a done deal and Moon will have to expend some political capital to get it approved. There are those in Moon's party who have a decidedly anti-American, anti-Alliance sentiment and they are now demonstrating public opposition and it is likely more will follow.
This is an inflection point for the alliance.
2. US has assessed North Korea could be preparing to carry out first weapons test since Biden took office
CNN · by Barbara Starr, CNN Pentagon Correspondent
Never say never. But to do so now could remove any near term opportunities for negotiations.
What the regime may be hoping for is that the raising of tension by Kim Yo-jong will be sufficient for the ROK and international community as well as the US to want to increase calls for negotiations. Of course we are going to call for negotiations, I am sure that will be part of the Biden administration policy review. However, the regime may be setting the conditions to say its blackmail diplomacy line of effort works in support of its political warfare strategy. Blackmail diplomacy = the use of threats, tension, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions. If the regime agrees to negotiations, it will assess it can do so because the call for negotiations by the US is in response to the regime's position of strength. Yes, we should negotiate but we should not be afraid to expose the north Korean political warfare strategy. Exposing their strategy allows us to operate from a position of greater strength than the regime.
3. U.S. general says North Korea might flight test new ICBM design 'in the near future'
Reuters · by Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali · March 17, 2021
There must be intelligence indicators. The general is inoculating us to the next test. It will not be a surprise and it can allow the Biden administration to take a measured response to demonstrate strategic reassurance and strategic resolve without take part in a rhetorical exchange with the regime. The Biden administration would do well to adopt a Teddy Roosevelt approach - talk softly and carry a big stick.
4. N.K. propaganda outlet carries poster depicting S. Korea-U.S. alliance crushed
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 17, 2021
We should not mock north Korean propaganda for its over the top visuals and rhetoric. It often communicates the regime's true intentions. And of course this type of propaganda is important for controlling the attitudes of the Korean people living in the north.
5. Pro-N.K. paper stresses Cabinet's role as control tower for economic policy
en.yna.co.kr · by 고병준 · March 17, 2021
Actually as Robert Collins teaches us, it is the Organization and Guidance Department (OGD) that is the control tower for everything, especially for the denial of human rights of the Korean people living in the north.
6. US warns North Korea could be planning ICBM test 'in near future' in test for Biden
The Guardian · by Justin McCurry · March 17, 2021
We must be ready but this also could play a role in deterring such a test because our exposure of the possibility takes away the north's form of "shock and awe." We can say: "Nothing to see here" - "happened as expected" "The regime is simply testing to advance its capabilities" "It has no intention of reducing or halting its missile and nuclear development". "But make no mistake the US will defend the security of the US and its allies and here are some of the strategic capabilities that can crush the Kim family regime" - (deploy some B-1s, B-2s, B-52s, F-35s to the region).
7. Discussion of nuclearizing S. Korea may help denuclearize N. Korea: U.S. lawmaker
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 17, 2021
This is unhelpful. But I guess this is why the ROK and US agreed to the statement of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula at Panmunjom and Singapore.
I also doubt very much China is "scared" of a nuclear South Korea or Japan.
8. S. Korean, U.S. defense chiefs to hold talks on N. Korea, OPCON transition
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 17, 2021
OPCON transition will be a critical friction point for the alliance as will be the different strategic assumptions about the nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.
9. Siding with North Korea (warning to the Moon administration)
koreajoongangdaily.joins.com
An important OpEd from the Joongang Ilbo's editorial board warning the Moon administration over the exercises and training rhetoric.
However, this excerpt is not accurate. It was not the ROK that "scaled down" the training and replaced it with computer simulation. It was always a computer simulation and the exercise was planned by ROK/US CFC planners - ROK and US officers. It was not scaled back by the ROK.
Excerpt: "We urge our government and military authorities to declare their clear position on joint military exercises. The Moon Jae-in administration not only scaled down the joint drill, which began earlier this month, but also replaced it with a computer-simulated command post training instead of mobilizing troops. The government may have pinned hopes on the possibility that North Korea will accept its proposal for dialogue as long as the annual drill could pass quietly."
This conclusion provides the warning to the Moon administration and a correct description of the Biden administration as well as the prescription for a strong alliance:
“The Moon administration must immediately stop flattering North Korea. If not, it will fall into a vicious cycle of emboldening it. For instance, the government hurriedly enacted a law aimed at punishing the act of sending anti-North leaflets and other materials cross the border shortly after Kim Yo-jong condemned the practice. Such submissive attitudes send the wrong message to North Korea.
Kim Yo-jong warned the United States not to engage in any provocative acts in the next four years if it wants its people to sleep at night. The Kim regime is closely monitoring the Biden administration’s new North Korea policy. But if Pyongyang believes such a threat can help change the new U.S. administration, that’s a serious miscalculation. On their trip to Seoul Wednesday, the two U.S. secretaries have a two-plus-two meeting with their counterparts. Seoul and Washington must speak in the same voice to prevent North Korea’s provocations and encourage policy changes from Pyongyang.”
10. North Korea holds lecture in border region highlighting need to eliminate anti-socialist acts
dailynk.com · March 17, 2021
The regime is defending against its existential threat: information and knowledge among the Korean people living in the north. The "criminal behavior" is listening to outside information.
This excerpt explains the nature of north Korea and rule by the Kim family regime. But I know there are those who think "anti-reactionary thought laws" might be a good thing for some partisan agendas.
11. Blinken says 'authoritarian' N.K. regime continues to commit 'systemic and widespread' abuses
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 17, 2021
Good words from the SECSTATE. We must take a human rights upfront approach and we must never be afraid to call out the mafia-like crime family cult for its documented crimes against humanity.
12. Biden's North Korea Problem: Not Just About Nukes or Missiles Anymore
19fortyfive.com · by Eric Gomez · March 16, 2021
This assessment, while possibly having some truth to it, is troubling. This is not a good sign for the ROK/US alliance and hopefully the SECSATTE and SECDEF will be able to prevent this perception:
“Washington’s review of its North Korea policy is still ongoing but based on these recent statements it seems likely that the Biden administration will adopt a policy that is more closely aligned with Japan’s rather than South Korea’s preferences. This would be bad news for the Moon administration, which has consistently stressed the need for greater U.S. engagement with North Korea despite Kim going to ground after the Hanoi summit.
A tougher U.S. policy that brings Washington and Tokyo into closer alignment would help Biden differentiate himself from Trump, but it is unlikely to nudge North Korea closer to either denuclearization or arms control. Instead of trying to make allies happy, the Biden administration should focus on looking out for the best interests of the United States.”
13. Kim Yo Jong Breaks the Silence, but What Does It Mean?
38 NORTH · March 16, 2021
A very optimistic assessment.
But let me state the real meaning of the action described in this excerpt. It is correct that the regime does not want Moon to align too closely with Biden:
“Kim Yo Jong’s statement is transparently aimed at South Korea in advance of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Seoul. The bottom line is pretty clear: President Moon Jae-in might still make some sort of progress in inter-Korean relations before the end of his term—which is fast approaching at the beginning of next year—but only IF he presses the US and doesn’t line up 100 percent with a new US policy should it call for more pressure against the North.
But the true intent is to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance. That is a key line of effort (Divide to conquer - divide the alliance to conquer the ROK) and the key condition to be able to ensure the survival of the regime by bringing the entire peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.”
14. [Interview] Former Moon advisor says US should focus on NK nuclear issue, not human rights when it comes to NK
Hani · by Lee Je-hun · March 10, 2021
Dangerous, troubling, and immoral thinking and comments from Moon Chung-in. This is the type of advice Moon Jae-in is receiving from one of his closest advisors.
15. Joe Biden's contradictory stance on North Korea promises trouble ahead
The Telegraph · by Mark Almond
This is a great description of the Kim family regime:
“Perhaps the best way to understand North Korea’s peculiar tactics – courtship by insult and threat – is to imagine them with a David Attenborough voiceover in the background: “The Kim is a ferocious beast, known to devour its closest relatives, but it emits a radioactive glow and sharp barks when trying to lure a mate from the wider world.”
16. Privatized War with Tim Shorrock (including COIN and Korea)
historicly.substack.com · by Robert Granniss
It is nice of the publisher to provide the time hacks and the bullet points. But anyone who follows Korea will note the huge inaccuracies (and outlandish ideas) of some of the statements.
The podcast can be accessd here:
----------------
"I don't mind a good fight. For reasons known only to God, I've had quite a few tough ones in my life. But I learned an important lesson along the way: In the end, it matters less that you can fight. What you fight for is the real test."
-John McCain
"I have sacrificed not only my favorite scheme of life, but the softer affections of the heart, and my prospects of domestic happiness, and I am ready to sacrifice my life also, with cheerfulness, if that forfeiture could restore peace and good will among mankind."
- John Paul Jones
"Leadership means firmness, not harshness or bullying; understanding, not weakness; justice, not irresponsible freedom; humaneness, not intolerance; generosity, not selfishness; pride, not egotism"
- Omar N. Bradley
03/16/2021 News & Commentary – National Security
03/16/2021 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin with Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Defense Minister Nobua Kishi Before Their Meeting
2. Surprise Attack: How China Could Start a War Against Taiwan
3. INDOPACOM Drafts Regional Strategy For All-Domain Ops
4. A story for Quad
5. Quad heads welcome cooperation from other countries
6. FDD | After a decade of despair, Syria needs our help
7. History Can Teach Joe Biden How to Outcompete China
8. Report - Cyber Fundamentals for SOF | SOF News
9. The Military Could Soon Face a Flag Officer Talent Crisis
10. ‘Just not going to happen’: US warns China over Australian trade stoush
11. A New Step Forward in PLA Professionalization
12. Air Force squadron in South Korea replaces pit bull morale patch linked to white supremacy
13. After the Insurrection, America’s Far-Right Groups Get More Extreme
14. Op-Ed: Look to the Reagan administration for the answer to the China challenge
15. Cornell Faculty Revolt Against China Partnership
16. IOC under fire after ‘dismissing’ claims of genocide against Uighurs in China
17. The disinformation tactics used by China
18. New US Army doctrine coming summer of 2022
19. Why the U.S. Won’t Leave the Indo-Pacific
20. America’s Coronavirus Catastrophe Began With Data
21. Even Tucker Carlson Has a Right to Bash the Military
22. Five Strategies for the New 'Civil' War
23. DOD Officials Describe Conditions in Indo-Pacific
1. Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin with Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and Defense Minister Nobua Kishi Before Their Meeting
state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State
2. Surprise Attack: How China Could Start a War Against Taiwan
19fortyfive.com · by Daniel Davis · March 15, 2021
Davis advocates for sustaining strategic ambiguity regarding Taiwan.
3. INDOPACOM Drafts Regional Strategy For All-Domain Ops
breakingdefense.com · by Theresa Hitchens
Excerpts:
JADC2 is the emerging strategy for how the Joint Force will command the highly automated, fast paced and globalized battlefields of the future, now also sitting on Milley’s desk.
“We’ve been intimately involved in all things related to Joint All Domain Command and Control,” he said. As you know, each of the services are pursuing various command and control constructs. You’re very familiar, I think, with Project Convergence in the US Army, Project Overmatch with the US Navy. The Air Force, I think, has really been a driving force behind the JADC2 in the way of CONOPS, or concept of operations development, and some of the tactics, techniques and procedures that will go into that as well. And they’re doing that materially through their ABMS [Advanced Battle Management System] program — so we’re tied in directly with all of these efforts.”
INDOPACOM already has been working on some experimental tech to implement JADC2 with DARPA, Ka’iliwai said, although neither he nor a DARPA spokesperson would go into any detail citing the sensitive nature of the efforts.
“We also have a very robust experimentation program when it comes to JADC2,” Ka’iliwai said. “We’ve actually exercised some of those constructs during our recent exercise Valiant Shield in the fall of last year.”
4. A story for Quad
indianexpress.com · March 15, 2021
A view from India.
Conclusion: “This broad-based practical agenda of the Quad also counters a second Chinese narrative on the forum. When it was not demonising the Quad as “Asian Nato”, the Chinese leadership dismissed it as transient “sea-foam”. The repurposing of the Quad to deal with shared challenges in the Indo-Pacific ensures the forum’s political sustainability over the longer term. It has taken quite a while for the Quad to arrive at this balanced framework; but the summit has gotten it just right. As the Quad finds a new credibility, China might be unwise to continue with its dual policy of condemnation and condescension. All four capitals — Delhi, Canberra, Tokyo and Washington — have huge stakes in a productive, peaceful and mutually beneficial relationship with China that has risen to become the world’s second largest economic and military power. It is up to Beijing now to rethink its current aggressive policies and seek cooperative relations with its Asian neighbours and the US. But if China continues to pursue hegemony, the Quad is bound to become an inevitable balancing force.”
5. Quad heads welcome cooperation from other countries
donga.com · March 16, 2021
Excerpt: “Recalling that the Quad was initially created to respond to the tsunami that devastated parts of Indonesia in 2004, the leaders said they are again summoned to act together in support of a region in need in this new age of interconnection and opportunity throughout the Indo-Pacific. The Quad leaders also gave a detailed explanation on what they discussed at the Quad summit, such as response to the pandemic and cooperation on climate change.”
6. FDD | After a decade of despair, Syria needs our help
fdd.org · by David Adesnik · March 15, 2021
Conclusion: “There have been few major battles in Syria since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, yet the war is far from over. The U.S. may not be able to end that war, but a well-crafted policy, including sanctions, can shape its course and alleviate suffering while imposing a measure of accountability on Assad and his enablers.”
7. History Can Teach Joe Biden How to Outcompete China
19fortyfive.com · by James Holmes · March 14, 2021
Conclusion:
“That the balance of folly favors the United States and its friends is no cause for complacency, though. Carl von Clausewitz counsels that failure is always an option in strategic competition or warfare. Clausewitz would concur with King Archidamus: it’s natural to hope an antagonist will blunder, and to welcome and exploit such blunders when they occur. It is unsafe to depend on an opponent to defeat itself.
Let’s up our game—and be safe.”
8. Report - Cyber Fundamentals for SOF | SOF News
sof.news · by SOF News · March 16, 2021
The four page paper can be accessed here.
9. The Military Could Soon Face a Flag Officer Talent Crisis
defenseone.com · by Col. Charles Luke
I did not expect this argument:
“At a minimum, Congress should delink the pay cap for retirement pay. This would provide a retirement equivalent to the pay scale for all service members, while not paying them more than members of Congress. Additionally, military pay caps should be adjusted based on the annual increase in the Employment Cost Index.
Another possible solution with historical precedent would be to selectively remove the cap for certain positions based on the level of responsibility, such as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the service chiefs, and the combatant commanders. Finally, the military should adopt an innovative retirement system commensurate with the inherent risks, responsibilities and commitment of a senior military leader.
It’s time for Congress and the Pentagon to begin serious consideration of how to address senior leader pay. Delinking military pay from the civilian Executive Schedule is an important start.”
10. ‘Just not going to happen’: US warns China over Australian trade stoush
The Sydney Morning Herald · by Peter Hartcher · March 16, 2021
We should pay close attention to this. This is one line of effort for the Quad. Coming to the defense of a member against Chinese economic warfare. South Korea should understand this is the kind of defense the Quad can offer if China again conducts economic warfare against the South as it did during the THAAD deployment.
11. A New Step Forward in PLA Professionalization
realcleardefense.com · by Joel Wuthnow and Phillip C. Saunders
A New Step Forward in PLA Professionalization
12. Air Force squadron in South Korea replaces pit bull morale patch linked to white supremacy
Stripes · by Matthew Keller · March 16, 2001
13. After the Insurrection, America’s Far-Right Groups Get More Extreme
defenseone.com · by Matthew Valasik
Excerpts:
“But that approach has ended. Merrick Garland’s appointment as Biden’s attorney general is a big signal: In his career at the Department of Justice before becoming a federal judge, Garland supervised the investigations of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing and the 1996 Atlanta Olympics bombing.
These were two of the most noteworthy acts of far-right domestic terrorism in the nation’s history. Garland has said that he will make fighting right-wing violence and attacks on democracy major priorities of his tenure at the head of the Justice Department.
In January, Canada designated the Proud Boys and other right-wing groups as terrorist organizations, which puts pressure on U.S. law enforcement to reconsider how they evaluate, investigate and prosecute these extremist groups. Beyond law enforcement’s treating these far-right groups like street gangs, there are also laws in place to combat violence associated with domestic terrorism.
It appears that U.S. prosecutors may finally begin to take seriously the violent actions of Proud Boys, especially as more and more members are being charged with coordinating the breach of the U.S. Capitol Building.
But as police power comes to bear on these violent right-wing groups, many of their members remain at least as radicalized as they were on Jan. 6 – if not more so. Some may feel that more extreme measures are needed to resist the Biden administration. “
14. Op-Ed: Look to the Reagan administration for the answer to the China challenge
Los Angeles Times · by H.R. McMaster and Jonathan D.T. Ward · March 15, 2021
The 10-page declassified NSDD 75 can be accessed here.
I like to read the Reagan national security documents because there are a lot of brilliant ideas in them. We can learn a lot from them.
15. Cornell Faculty Revolt Against China Partnership
freebeacon.com · by Yuichiro Kakutani · March 15, 2021
Good for the professors. Bottom line versus values.
Conclusion:
“The senate will hold a nonbinding vote on the issue on March 17. Administrators can push ahead with the plan even if professors disapprove, but the stakes are high. If faculty members vote against the joint degree program, they might also oppose Cornell's many other programs in China.
Abandoning those partnerships would be disastrous to the university's bottom line, something Fiskesjö says may be its only choice.
"If you carry on business as usual, you end up legitimizing and endorsing what they're doing," he said. "You can run a genocide … and it doesn't matter, we'll keep opening new exchange programs with you."
16. IOC under fire after ‘dismissing’ claims of genocide against Uighurs in China
The Guardian · by Sean Ingle · March 12, 2021
As it should be. Can anyone be neutral when genocide is being committed?
17. The disinformation tactics used by China
BBC · by Krassi Twigg and Kerry Allen · March 16, 2021
18. New US Army doctrine coming summer of 2022
Defense News · by Jen Judson · March 15, 2021
19. Why the U.S. Won’t Leave the Indo-Pacific
WSJ · by Walter Russell Mead
Excerpts:
“The picture wasn’t always a beautiful one. Racist attitudes and the U.S. colonial venture in the Philippines left a complicated and sometimes bitter legacy. But if Americans haven’t always been noble or wise in their Pacific policies, they have always been engaged.
That is unlikely to change today. The region is more central to U.S. prosperity and security than ever. Seeking a balanced and secure regional order—without war traps, Thucydidean or otherwise—is a challenging task. America and its allies are sure to make some mistakes.
But if allies sometimes doubt U.S. wisdom, the American commitment to the region is so deeply grounded in history and the structure of U.S. interests that walking away from the region is the one thing Washington is least likely to do.”
20. America’s Coronavirus Catastrophe Began With Data
defenseone.com · by Robinson Meyer and Alexis C. Madrigal
Excerpts:
To avoid another data calamity, our public-health system must expend as much energy on understanding the present as it does on modeling the future. Governing through a pandemic—or any emergency—is about making the least-bad decisions with the best information available. That information can take many forms; it doesn’t have to be data. But if you do look at the data, then you must understand how each point, each cell, was made; otherwise, you’re likely to be misled.
Our leaders should also put some faith in the capabilities of those whom they govern. The COVID Tracking Project clung to one principle: We told people the truth as we could discern it. We didn’t say what we wanted to be true, nor what we hoped would engender a specific public response.
Working on the COVID Tracking Project has been the honor of our lives. For a year, every day, dozens of volunteers—programmers, librarians, high schoolers, a former hotel manager—came together to make an honest account of one of the most horrifying ordeals that any of us had ever experienced. This team of former strangers, united by concern and curiosity, salvaged something useful from the din. We held fast to one another, and we made sense of the world as we could.
21. Even Tucker Carlson Has a Right to Bash the Military
The Daily Beast · by Matt Lewis · March 15, 2021
As I have previously written: What @TuckerCarlson said is reprehensible & indefensible. But there is only one response to it from any US military service member who believes in his or her oath:
"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - S.G. Tallentyre
----------------
"Debate is never finished; it can't be, lest democracy be no longer democratic and society be stripped of or forfeit its autonomy. Democracy means that the citizen's task is never complete. Democracy exists through persevering and unyielding citizens' concern. Once that concern is put to sleep, democracy expires."
-Zygmunt Bauman
"The sides are being divided now. It’s very obvious. So if you’re on the other side of the fence, you’re suddenly anti-American. Its breeding fear of being on the wrong side. Democracy’s a very fragile thing. You have to take care of democracy. As soon as you stop being responsible to it and allow it to turn into scare tactics, it’s no longer democracy, is it? It’s something else. It may be an inch away from totalitarianism."
- Sam Shepard
"Democracy becomes a government of bullies tempered by editors."
-Ralph Waldo Emerson
03/16/2021 News & Commentary – Korea
03/16/2021 News & Commentary – Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. FDD | Ahead of U.S.-ROK Meeting, Unresolved Policy Disputes Still Trouble the Alliance
2. It Will Be Hard to See Again Spring Days Three Years Ago (Kim Yo Jong's Statement about ROK/US Training)
3. Biden aides bristled when Justice official called North Korea a 'criminal syndicate,' say officials
4. Troubles ahead for the US–South Korea alliance
5. S. Korea, U.S. to hold 'two plus two' meeting on alliance, N. Korea, China issues
6. Blinken says U.S. is looking at pressure measures, diplomatic paths, in N.K. policy review
7. Enforcing Sanctions on North Korea Is an Opportunity for Cooperation at Sea
8. While North Korean Missiles Sit in Storage, Their Hackers Go Rampant
9. 1/3 of Vaccine Recipients Have Adverse Reaction (South Korea)
10. Defense minister expresses regret over N. Korea's criticism of military exercises
11. Defense ministry calls for N. Korea's 'flexible' stance, full implementation of military pact
12. With Biden envoys in Asia, Kim’s sister warns US, SK
13. U.S. Pushes for Closer Ties Between Korea and Japan
14. Strategic clarity in 2+2, 2021
15. Blinken and Austin's visit to Seoul
16. N Korea warns US not to 'cause a stink' before Seoul meeting
17. Israel, South Korea to co-operate on unmanned airborne ISTAR
18. U.S. will work on denuclearization of North Korea with allies: Blinken
19. They left behind children to find freedom. The choice haunts North Korean refugee women
1. FDD | Ahead of U.S.-ROK Meeting, Unresolved Policy Disputes Still Trouble the Alliance
fdd.org · by Mathew Ha Research Analyst · March 15, 2021
Excellent analysis from my colleague, Mathew Ha.
2. It Will Be Hard to See Again Spring Days Three Years Ago (Kim Yo Jong's Statement about ROK/US Training)
kcnawatch.org · March 15, 2021
This is the statement that has everyone spun up. There is a lot of press reporting on this as everyone is trying to read the tea leaves.
She is referring to the Panmunjom Declaration in April 2018 (Spring days three years ago)
The first most obvious point of this message is to simply drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance. That is one of the most critically important lines of effort in the regime's strategy. It must break the alliance to successfully dominate the Korean peninsula. The timing of this is perfect with th 2+2 ministerial talks about to take place in Seoul. It is also attempting to explicate the rhetoric coming out of Seoul, in particular from the Minister of Unification but others as well who are opposed to combined ROK/US training. I think this is the number one purpose of the message.
Another aspect of this message is the possibility of the continued good cop/bad cop relationship of Kim Yo-jong and her brother. Her statements (again attributed directly to her and published in her voice which is rare) can give KJU the ability to walk this back in the future if he chooses to. They have been testing this out since Kim Yo-jong-'s first public statement last March and what we saw happen in June.
In addition, this both serves to reinforce Kim Yo-jong's legitimacy as a senior member of the Kim Family regime (the importance of the lack party titles notwithstanding not bestowed during the 8th Party Congress) as well as the strength of the Paektu bloodline. This could contribute to the legitimacy of eventual succession should something happen to Kim.
This is also the continuation of a new play in the Kim family regime playbook that was first executed this past June when Kim Yo-jong made threats against the South over escapee/defector information operations, and then acted on the threat by destroying the ROK Liaison office at the Kaesong Industrial Complex. The result of this action was South Korean appeasement and the passing of the anti-leaflet amendment in December which actually contributes to the protection of the Kim family regime because of the existential threat caused by information flow to the Korean people living in the north. The intent, at a minimum is for the ROK to pressure the US to halt training (which I do not believe it will agree to) and if the US does not agree to halt training the regime hopes for some catastrophic break in the alliance such as the ROK halting participation. I think that is unlikely to happen but the regime sees evidence of ROK appeasement of the north due to the Moon administration failure to recognize and understand the true nature and objectives of the Kim family regime.
It is critically important for the alliance not to bow down to Kim Yo-jong's threats. The talks this week must result in a renewed commitment to the alliance and a recognition that this statement illustrates not only the true nature of the regime but also its growing playbook and the strategy the playbook is designed to support - namely domination of the Korean peninsula to ensure survival of the Kim family regime.
3. Biden aides bristled when Justice official called North Korea a 'criminal syndicate,' say officials
NBC News · by Carol E. Lee and Ken Dilanian · March 16, 2021
Three points. First, the Kim family regime is a mafia-like crime family cult that is conducting illicit activities around the world. Department or Office 39 is a global crime syndicate.
Second, our rhetoric will not influence the Kim regime either positively or negatively. We need to realize that Kim is executing his playbook and he is not reacting to our rhetoric. Sure, the Propaganda and Agitation Department will spin our words for propaganda purposes but our rhetoric will not have any influence over Kim Jong-un decision making. Unfortunately, when the regime blames its actions on our rhetoric (a convenient excuse for doing or not doing something as it already planned) we go into a round of self criticism and blame.
Third, the journalists have missed the point on denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. They must not have got the memo or they did not read Sung Kim's statement closely enough. He specifically said denuclearization of north Korea, as have most all administration officials. Moon and Trump were duped at Panmunjom and Singapore into agreeing to denuclearization of the Korean peninsula which has a very specific meaning for north Korea. Although there have been no nuclear weapons in South Korea since we unilaterally removed them in 1991-1992 in the regime's calculus it is the presence of US troops that provide access to nuclear weapons and the continued deployment of US strategic assets reinforces that. Denuclearization of the Korean peninsula plays right into the regime's hands to negotiate the end of the US hostile policy by ending the alliance, removing US troops and ending extended deterrence over the ROK and Japan. It is good for the Biden Administration to correct tis error. The press needs to get on board.
Also the UN Security Council has demanded an end to the regime's nuclear program (not denuclearization of the Korean peninsula) since 2016 and the passage of UNSCR 1718. Denuclearization of north Korea is the correct statement and everyone needs to get on board and not fall for regime rhetorical traps.
Security Council Resolution 1718
Resolution 1718 was unanimously adopted by the UN Security Council on October 14, 2006, shortly after North Korea’s first nuclear test on October 9. The full text of Resolution 1718 is available here.
Resolution 1718’s Principal Provisions
Resolution 1718:
- Demands North Korea refrain from further nuclear or missile tests.
- Demands North Korea return to the NPT.
- Decides North Korea shall suspend all ballistic missile activities.
- Decides North Korea shall abandon its nuclear program in a “complete, verifiable, and irreversible” manner.
- Decides North Korea shall abandon all WMD activities.
- Calls upon North Korea to return to the Six-Party Talks.
Resolution 1718’s Principal Sanctions
Member states are prohibited from the “direct or indirect supply, sale, or transfer” to North Korea, of:
- Heavy weaponry, such as tanks, armored vehicles, large caliber artillery, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, warships and missile systems
- Spare parts for the above mentioned heavy weaponry
- Materials and technologies that could contribute to North Korea’s WMD programs and ballistic missile related activities, as set out in prior Security Council documents
- Luxury goods
Member states are also required to:
- Freeze the funds or financial assets of entities designated by the Security Council as providing support for North Korea’s nuclear, missile, and other WMD programs
4. Troubles ahead for the US–South Korea alliance
lowyinstitute.org · by Khang Vu
No. The Moon administration's peace at any cost vision is dangerous to the security of the ROK and the ROK/US alliance. The problem is in the subtitle - we cannot "indulge" the Moon administration's "hopes."
But the author does point out a number of thorny points of friction (such as the Japanese abductee issues).
5. S. Korea, U.S. to hold 'two plus two' meeting on alliance, N. Korea, China issues
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 16, 2021
Excerpts:
“The meeting comes as the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden seeks to leverage what it calls America's "greatest strategic asset" -- alliances with South Korea, Japan and others -- to uphold a "free and open" Indo-Pacific region being challenged by a rising China.
The high-profile gathering was instituted in 2010 to stress the robustness of the alliance after the North's deadly torpedo attack on the South's corvette Cheonan. Though it started as a regular dialogue platform, it has not been held since the last and fourth session in Washington in October 2016.”
6. Blinken says U.S. is looking at pressure measures, diplomatic paths, in N.K. policy review
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 16, 2021
Key points:
"We're looking at whether various additional pressure measures could be effective, whether there are diplomatic paths that make sense, all of that is under review," Blinken said at the press conference following the so-called two plus two meeting with the Japanese ministers.
"Going forward we have a shared determination to deal with the challenge posed by North Korea, particularly when it comes to its nuclear missile programs, as well of course as its abuse of human rights," he added.
7. Enforcing Sanctions on North Korea Is an Opportunity for Cooperation at Sea
warontherocks.com · by Artem Sherbinin · March 16, 2021
Excellent essay from a LTG. He provides information about coalition coordination we do not often see.
Conclusions:
“The coalition generates strategic outcomes for the United States beyond the scope of stopping petroleum imports to North Korea. Cooperation at sea improves the United States’ ability to surveil China’s near seas, increases interoperability between the U.S. Navy and partner states’ militaries, eases the operational burden on the U.S. Seventh Fleet, offers an avenue for cooperation with China, and improves the strategic and military relationship between South Korea and Japan. So why has the United States not taken the steps outlined above since the cell was established in 2018?
Chinese uncooperativeness and mistrust of the U.S. alliance system — as well as the Donald Trump administration’s erratic policy shifts regarding China and North Korea and transactional and bilateral approach to international affairs — impeded maritime collaboration in East Asia over the past four years. As a result, American security cooperation initiatives throughout the region have been limited to foreign military sales and financing, and a series of disparate bilateral naval and military exercises. Similarly, naval cooperation with China dwindled after its navy was uninvited from the region’s largest multinational naval exercise, Rim of the Pacific, in 2018.
Biden has stated that he willing to “work with China” and that he will place alliances and multinational cooperation at the forefront of his foreign policy. Such an approach creates the opportunity to bring new life to fledgling organizations such as the Enforcement Coordination Cell. But, in order to leverage the enforcement group to achieve greater strategic ends, the Biden administration and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command will first need to align primary and secondary political objectives with existing and potential member states, demonstrate the benefits of cooperation to China, and resolve naval interoperability challenges that have plagued East Asia for decades.”
8. While North Korean Missiles Sit in Storage, Their Hackers Go Rampant
Foreign Policy · by Morten Soendergaard Larsen · March 15, 2021
The all-purpose sword is critically important to the survival of the Kim family regime. Unlike the treasured sword of nuclear weapons, it has immediate, practical application and can be employed with little fear of a significant response (yet!)
9. 1/3 of Vaccine Recipients Have Adverse Reaction (South Korea)
english.chosun.com · March 16, 2021
And there are many cases in Europe as well. It is interesting the US FDA has not approved the AstraZeneca vaccine.
10. Defense minister expresses regret over N. Korea's criticism of military exercises
en.yna.co.kr · by 유지호 · March 16, 2021
Kim Yo-jong's statement may also be in response to Minister Suh's misguided and ill-timed statement that ROK/US combined exercises should be negotiated with the north. The regime probably believes Kim Yo-jong's statement helps establish the conditions for such negotiations.
Note the comment on the 2018 Comprehensive Military Agreement. We should note that the north has not implemented the terms of the agreement to any significant extent except for changes to procedures in the JSA and the removal of a handful of guard posts.
11. Defense ministry calls for N. Korea's 'flexible' stance, full implementation of military pact
en.yna.co.kr · by 오석민 · March 16, 2021
For nearly three years we have been testing the CMA and the idea we can cancel, postpone, and/or scale back exercises and that it will engender a positive response from north Korea. Kim Jong-un has proven that is not the case.
12. With Biden envoys in Asia, Kim’s sister warns US, SK
asiatimes.com · by Sunghee Hwang · March 16, 2021
This rhetoric conforms with the historical patterns of north Korean propaganda.
13. U.S. Pushes for Closer Ties Between Korea and Japan
english.chosun.com · March 16, 2021
Trilateral cooperation will be a key element of the Biden Administration policy. And none of the three countries can be successful toward north Korea and China without strong and effective trilateral cooperation. And a trilateral alliance would be even better but I know that is a pipe dream for the next 3 or 10 generation)
14. Strategic clarity in 2+2, 2021
The Korea Times · by Ahn Ho-young · March 16, 2021
From our good friend Ambassador Ahn. He makes an important recommendation that I think we should consider.
15. Blinken and Austin's visit to Seoul
The Korea Times · by Lee Seong-hyon · March 16, 2021
Very interesting analysis.
Excerpts:
“So, Alaska is the destination. Tokyo and Seoul are stopovers.
The Alaska meeting will not be successful, but it is important. It will be an occasion for both sides to exchange their respective bottom lines, to define what will be perceived as "violations" that will provoke strong reactions, including kinetic ones. The U.S. is concerned that an overconfident China may become more adventurous with its military actions, miscalculating Washington's will to react. Beijing will also reiterate its so-called "core interests." The meeting, after all, is to manage conflict between the two competing powers so that things don't get out of control.
Finally, there is one thing that both Blinken and Austin must demonstrate during this trip. They should emit calm confidence and mature leadership that can gain back the trust of their Asian allies that have been bullied by China and were belittled by Trump. Restoring their trust must come first. And there is the old maxim by John F. Kennedy: Ask not what your ally can do for you ― ask what you can do for your ally. It's a reminder for both Seoul and Washington.”
16. N Korea warns US not to 'cause a stink' before Seoul meeting
AP · by Kim Tong-Hyung · March 16, 2021
We should not be distracted by the colorful rhetoric. This is a serious statement designed to drive a wedge in the ROK//US alliance.
17. Israel, South Korea to co-operate on unmanned airborne ISTAR
janes.com · by Gareth Jennings · March 15, 2021
18. U.S. will work on denuclearization of North Korea with allies: Blinken
Reuters · by Reuters Staff · March 16, 2021
The press must pay attention to the SECSTATE words. We must purge the words denuclearization of the Korean peninsula from the reporting. It is denuclearization of north Korea.
19. They left behind children to find freedom. The choice haunts North Korean refugee women
Los Angeles Times · by Victoria Kim · March 16, 2021
Such tragic stories. But all blame for this rests on the shoulders of the Kim family regime and the system and situation and conditions it has created in north Korea. It is a human tragedy on a scale we find difficult to comprehend. And China is complicit in north Korean human rights abuses.
------------------
"Debate is never finished; it can't be, lest democracy be no longer democratic and society be stripped of or forfeit its autonomy. Democracy means that the citizen's task is never complete. Democracy exists through persevering and unyielding citizens' concern. Once that concern is put to sleep, democracy expires."
-Zygmunt Bauman
"The sides are being divided now. It’s very obvious. So if you’re on the other side of the fence, you’re suddenly anti-American. Its breeding fear of being on the wrong side. Democracy’s a very fragile thing. You have to take care of democracy. As soon as you stop being responsible to it and allow it to turn into scare tactics, it’s no longer democracy, is it? It’s something else. It may be an inch away from totalitarianism."
- Sam Shepard
"Democracy becomes a government of bullies tempered by editors."
-Ralph Waldo Emerson
03/15/2021 News & Commentary – National Security
03/15/2021 News & Commentary – National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Daniel Riggs.
1. Opinion | America’s partnerships are ‘force multipliers’ in the world (SECSTATE and SECDEF)
2. Quad Summit 2021: Why is China Rattled?
3. Taiwan’s cabinet reshuffle a response to China’s ‘unrestricted warfare’
4. White House Weighs New Cybersecurity Approach After Failure to Detect Hacks
5. 'We are human and we messed up': U.S. Marine account apologizes for comments defending female service members
6. Satellite maps show China building helicopter base facing Taiwan Strait
7. Biden builds bridges to contend with Beijing
8. Why Britain is tilting to the Indo-Pacific region
9. China has brought its repressive surveillance tools to Hong Kong
10. China's Deep Strike
11. U.S. Has 1,000 More Troops in Afghanistan Than It Disclosed
12. Covid-style virus 'could be used as a terror weapon to bring new pandemic', expert warns
13. Biden Goals Converge in Asia: Rebuilding Alliances and Countering China
14. Biden Team Engaged in ‘Rigorous’ Debate Over Ending Forever War
15. Incorporating the Cyberspace Domain: How Russia and China Exploit Asymmetric Advantages in Great Power Competition
16. Redefine Readiness or Lose (USAF and USMC)
17. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 15, 2021 | SOF News
18. Police Shrugged Off the Proud Boys, Until They Attacked the Capitol
1. Opinion | America’s partnerships are ‘force multipliers’ in the world (SECSTATE and SECDEF)
The Washington Post · by Antony J. Blinken and Lloyd J. Austin III · March 14, 2021
A very strong essay from the two Secretaries (kudos to their action officers/speechwriters).
They are talking to the American people to explain why alliances are important to all of us.
Excerpts:
“Ahead of that journey, we want to take the opportunity to lay out why alliances are vital to our national security and how they deliver for the American people.
...
A fundamental debate is underway about the future — and whether democracy or autocracy offers the best path forward. It’s up to us and other democracies to come together and show the world that we can deliver — for our people and for each other.
...
All that work is tied directly to the safety, well-being and economic security of the American people.”
2. Quad Summit 2021: Why is China Rattled?
financialexpress.com · by Major General S B Asthana · March 14, 2021
Excerpt:
“The agenda seems benign, but Beijing did not miss the connection of freedom of navigation, overflight and the concerns over “aggression” and “coercion” against members of Quad by China in its first summit meeting. No-one during the Summit called out China directly, but China knows that it challenged rule-based order by junking PCA’s decision in South China Sea (SCS) and continues to coerce countries in Indo-Pacific region. Chinese response of calling Quad meeting as ‘selective multilateralism’ and ‘covid politics’ shows its frustration due to emergence of an alternate global vaccination collaboration, something which China had unilaterally reserved for itself for profiteering.”
3. Taiwan’s cabinet reshuffle a response to China’s ‘unrestricted warfare’
aspistrategist.org.au · by Corey Lee Bell · March 12, 2021
There should be no doubt that the PRC is conducting unrestricted warfare.
Excerpts:
“But that’s just one way to look at it. An alternative theory is that the reshuffle reflects the administration’s attempts to confront the growing challenges posed by China’s model of ‘unrestricted warfare’, which replaces a narrow focus on kinetic warfare with a wider array of options, including ‘grey zone’ tactics, lawfare, political warfare and economic leverage.
To understand why this may be the case, it’s useful to examine the personnel changes in more detail.”
4. White House Weighs New Cybersecurity Approach After Failure to Detect Hacks
The New York Times · by David E. Sanger, Julian E. Barnes and Nicole Perlroth · March 14, 2021
Excerpts:
“When not one but two cyberhacks have gone undetected by the federal government in such a short period of time, it’s hard to say that we don’t have a problem,” said Representative Mike Gallagher, Republican of Wisconsin and a co-chairman of a congressionally mandated cyberspace commission. “The system is blinking red.”
The failures have prompted the White House to begin assessing options for overhauling the nation’s cyberdefenses even as the government investigates the hacks. Some former officials believe the hacks show Congress needs to give the government additional powers.
But briefing reporters on Friday about the progress of the investigations, senior administration officials said the White House had no plans to urge Congress to rewrite the laws that prevent American intelligence agencies from operating inside America’s borders.
One senior adviser to President Biden said, however, that a new structure was needed, one that combined traditional intelligence collection with the talents of private-sector firms.
5. 'We are human and we messed up': U.S. Marine account apologizes for comments defending female service members
USA Today · by Matthew Brown, USA TODAY
6. Satellite maps show China building helicopter base facing Taiwan Strait
taiwannews.com.tw
7. Biden builds bridges to contend with Beijing
eastasiaforum.org · by Ryan Hass · March 15, 2021
Excerpts:
“The United States must simultaneously allay concerns among partners about being ‘forced to choose’ between the United States and China. The inescapable reality is that China’s importance to other countries is growing. It is the world’s largest trading power and the leading engine of global economic growth.
Given this reality, the United States will need to give allies space to pursue their own interests with China, even while they partner with the United States on priority issues. Washington will also need to demonstrate — through its own words and actions — that it supports developing a constructive relationship with China, even as it prepares to push back strongly against problematic Chinese behaviour.
Somewhat counterintuitively, the more Washington is seen as responsibly working to develop durable relations with Beijing, the more diplomatic space it opens for cooperation with others on China. Washington’s partners will feel more comfortable working with the United States on issues relating to China when doing so is not perceived as an expression of hostility towards China.
The Biden administration’s approach to China reflects a subtle but significant departure from the Trump administration’s more direct approach of confronting China. President Biden and his team recognise that the results of their strategy may not be visible for some time and do not harbour illusions of changing China overnight. They intend to play a long game. If their approach bears fruit, the United States will fortify its capacity to compete with China from a position of strength.”
8. Why Britain is tilting to the Indo-Pacific region
The Guardian · by Patrick Wintour · March 15, 2021
The old saying: Europe is the continent of the past, America is the continent of the present, and Asia is the continent of the future.
9. China has brought its repressive surveillance tools to Hong Kong
asia.nikkei.com · by Dan McDevitt · March 15, 2021
Does Hong Kong provide a glimpse of the future of authoritarian states?
Excerpts:
“But recent events have made plain the Chinese government's intention to transform Hong Kong's digital spaces just as it has the city's offline environment and, last week, its electoral system.
In January, Hong Kong authorities used the security law as grounds for blocking a website for the first time, compelling mobile providers to disrupt access to HKChronicles, which compiled information on anti-government protests and personal data on police and their supporters.
...
Contrary to the predictions of former U.S. President Bill Clinton, the Chinese government has effectively "nailed Jell-O to the wall" with its effective controls over online information flows, so we should not be surprised that they would try to do it again in Hong Kong.
But we can also be sure that just as in China, dissident groups and voices will continue to operate, even at great personal risk. At this critical moment, it is important that the world support these voices and not cast a blind eye to what is happening in Hong Kong, online and off.”
10. China's Deep Strike
spytalk.co · by Matthew Brazil
Excerpts:
“Now it seems to be applying the same strategy in the West’s rear area, causing disruptions to online systems and simultaneously benefitting the Chinese economy with viruses and worms used to steal information from computer systems worldwide.
...
Bad actors in China and beyond, whether working on behalf of intelligence services or criminal organizations, are expected to rapidly develop HAFNIUM “proof of concept exploits,” i.e. to show that they can use the vulnerability to burrow into a target system by performing benign tasks like opening up the calculator, or moving the cursor. From there, it is a short step to weaponizing the exploit with malware.
...
It is no surprise that the multi-stage, malicious HAFNIUM operation from China against Microsoft Exchange servers bears some operational resemblance to the Solar Winds attack from Russia. Both rely on widespread use of a targeted system, i.e. Solar Winds and Microsoft Exchange, as the vector to reach the real objective: the tens of thousands of users who possess sensitive information like U.S. defense production data, weapons systems designs, trade secrets useful to China’s latest Five-Year Plan, and the emails of Beijing’s perceived political enemies.
...
Once an exploit is posted on Github, anyone can use it. Criminals then go after low hanging fruit, including the vast number of people who don’t bother with software updates and patches. That especially includes those using pirated software. Previously a cheap alternative, pirated software has become the Typhoid Mary of the digital space.”
11. U.S. Has 1,000 More Troops in Afghanistan Than It Disclosed
The New York Times · by Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt · March 14, 2021
It is always about the headcount - the troop numbers. I feel for the poor personnel officers who have to account for the numbers using arcane systems and different defined categories for accounting.
But here is the issue:
“The cloudy accounting around the troop numbers results from some Special Operations forces having been put “off the books,” according to a senior U.S. official, as well as the presence of some temporary and transitioning units. These troops, according to a second U.S. official, include Joint Special Operations Command units, some of them elite Army Rangers, who work under both the Pentagon and the CIA while deployed to Afghanistan.
Having more troops in a country than the Defense Department officially acknowledges is common practice. From Syria to Yemen to Mali, the United States often details military troops to the CIA or other agencies, declares that information “classified” and refuses to publicly acknowledge their presence.”
12. Covid-style virus 'could be used as a terror weapon to bring new pandemic', expert warns
Mirror · by William Walker · March 15, 2021
The sky is falling or a prudent warning?
13. Biden Goals Converge in Asia: Rebuilding Alliances and Countering China
The New York Times · by Lara Jakes, John Ismay and Steven Lee Myers · March 14, 2021
Yes, this is going to be quite a week of diplomacy.
Excerpt: After the meetings in Tokyo and Seoul, Mr. Austin will travel to India, which is at its lowest point in relations with China in decades after a deadly border incursion last summer. Mr. Blinken will arrive in Alaska on Thursday for the meeting with the Chinese envoys.
14. Biden Team Engaged in ‘Rigorous’ Debate Over Ending Forever War
Foreign Policy · by Michael Hirsh · March 12, 2021
Excerpts:
“As Obama’s vice president, Biden was a first-hand witness to the frustration his predecessor felt. “Obama really wanted to end the forever wars,” Johnson said. “But sometimes events get in the way of that. We wanted to get out of Iraq completely, but [the civil war] in Syria complicated that. Then along came the Islamic State in about 2014.”
Even so, there can be an endpoint. In a series of speeches, Johnson and other officials in the Obama administration sought to distinguish between al Qaeda and more regional actors, like what would become the Islamic State. As the Pentagon’s general counsel in 2012, Johnson mapped out just how the never-ending war might end. “[T]here will come a tipping point … at which so many of the leaders and operatives of al Qaeda and its affiliates have been killed or captured and the group is no longer able to attempt or launch a strategic attack against the United States, such that al Qaeda as we know it, the organization that our Congress authorized the military to pursue in 2001, has been effectively destroyed.”
That tipping point, Johnson said this week, has been reached. “When the conflict that Congress authorized in 2001 comes to an end, then we should have the political courage to say it,” he said.
15. Incorporating the Cyberspace Domain: How Russia and China Exploit Asymmetric Advantages in Great Power Competition
mwi.usma.edu · by Mark Gzrgorzewski · March 15, 2021
Conclusion: “In short, Russia and China view information and cyberspace operations differently than the United States does, and they are designing their operations and cyberinfrastructure to engage the United States asymmetrically. As previously noted and despite persistent claims to the contrary, both states see themselves currently engaged in information warfare against the United States. The military application of information as an instrument of war—in isolation and in conjunction with other tools—is a central component of these states’ modern approach to warfare, both today and into the foreseeable future. Recognition of this reality must undergird America’s cyberspace and information warfare policies and doctrine.”
16. Redefine Readiness or Lose (USAF and USMC)
warontherocks.com · by Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr. and Gen. David H. Berger· March 15, 2021
Conclusion: “We have done this before, and together we can do it again while avoiding perceptions of creating winners and losers. Today’s Air Force and Marine Corps, and our assumed dominance of the air and littorals, were shaped by innovative and courageous individuals throughout our storied histories. Seeing the need for change when others did not, our forebears overcame the traditionalist opposition of their day, forged new technologically advanced capabilities, and developed novel operational concepts that paved the way for the many successes to which our shared history bears witness. We can do it again. If we are bold enough and committed to providing the military advice needed to overcome our present orientation, we can shape our future proactively. The alternative, as various military institutions have discovered to their sorrow in the past, is being forced to re-shape ourselves reactively, after experiencing catastrophic loss and potential defeat. To do this, we cannot let our focus on near-term availability consume the resources necessary to generate truly relevant future readiness through adaptive modernization. We have a unique, but limited, window of opportunity. The time to act is now.”
17. Special Operations News Update - Monday, March 15, 2021 | SOF News
sof.news · by SOF News · March 15, 2021
18. Police Shrugged Off the Proud Boys, Until They Attacked the Capitol
The New York Times · by David D. Kirkpatrick and Alan Feuer · March 14, 2021
------------------
What @TuckerCarlson said is reprehensible & indefensible. But there is only one response to it from any US military service member who believes in his or her oath:
"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." - S.G. Tallentyre
"If the freedom of speech is taken away then dumb and silent we may be led, like sheep to the slaughter."
- George Washington
"In the U.S., the country that has always been lecturing the world about the value of freedoms - of freedom of speech, of everyone's right to speak up - the U.S. has now become a beacon, a leader, in this movement to shut everyone up. That's so disappointing."
- Margarita Simonyan
Source... 
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