Small Wars Journal
USIP Publication: What Will Become of Iraqis in Al-Hol?
USIP Publication: What Will Become of Iraqis in Al-Hol?
This piece originally appeared on USIP.org.
Full Article: https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/11/what-will-become-iraqis-al-hol
By Sarhang Hamasaeed
In October, Kurdish authorities announced 24,000 Syrians would be released. But the camp’s Iraqi residents’ future is as uncertain as ever.
The al-Hol camp in northeast Syria—which holds tens of thousands who were living among ISIS before its territorial defeat—has presented the region and international community with a host of thorny challenges. What to do with the camp’s residents has particularly bedeviled the Kurdish authorities who run the camp as well as the governments of countries where residents came from. On October 5, Kurdish authorities said they would release the Syrians in the camp, where conditions have become increasingly unsustainable. But, nearly half of the camps’ 65,000 residents are Iraqis, and their prospect for return remains deeply uncertain. USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed discusses the situation facing Iraqis in al-Hol and the challenges ahead if they indeed return.
11/24/2020 News & Commentary - National Security
11/24/2020 News & Commentary - National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. Langevin supports DOD refocus on civilian oversight
2. No, the US Agency for Global Media does not compete with US commercial media
3. Tapping Flournoy as SecDef would be a really big deal
4. Why the Quad should focus on a strategy to contain China
5. Judge in Venezuela convicts 6 U.S. oil executives of corruption
6. How to save democracy from technology
7. U.S., Taiwan to push an alternative to China’s belt and road
8. Pompeo: we have 'force posture right' on radical Islamic terror
9. Total Covid-19 cases in U.S. may be eight times higher than reported, scientists estimate
10. Beijing doesn't want the U.S. to form an 'anti-China coalition' in the post-Trump era, consultancy says
11. Biden should revamp Asia-Pacific path, ditch Indo-Pacific idea
12. Climate change, terrorism top list of challenges facing US military
13. ‘Let’s build a digital Silk Road’: Xi Jinping looks to cement China’s ties with Asean
14. Targeting North Atlantic Treaty Organization Article 5: assessing enhanced forward presence as a below war threshold response
15. PH air force unit shows off improved firepower, accuracy at anniversary rite
16. Naval group opens office in Philippines with submarine deal in sight
17. Pope Francis: a crisis reveals what is in our hearts
18. How globalization undermined the case for western values
19. Why did 74 million Americans vote for Trump? This sociologist has the answer
20. Fundraiser gives back to Alice Brock of hit thanksgiving song fame
1. Langevin supports DOD refocus on civilian oversight
Warwick Post · Rob Borkowski · November 25, 2020
We need to remove the personalities and conspiracy theories from the equation and focus on the importance of this action. And Congress, as evidenced by Rep. Langevin, wants this to be sustained.
2. No, the US Agency for Global Media does not compete with US commercial media
MountainRunner.us · Matt Armstrong · November 26, 2020
For all those who criticize USAGM, Voice of America, Radio Free Asia, RFE, RL, I recommend reading and pondering this important essay from Matt Armstrong.
3. Tapping Flournoy as SecDef Would Be a Really Big Deal
Defense One · Janine Davidson ·November 26, 2020
She is well qualified and respected. I hope the progressive wing of the Democratic party does not derail her nomination. A "natsec black belt?"
4. Why the Quad should focus on a strategy to contain China
National Interest · James Holmes · November 26, 2020
It is important the work done by the Trump administration is carried forward in a Biden administration.
5. Judge in Venezuela convicts 6 U.S. oil executives of corruption
New York Times · The Associated Press · November 26, 2020
Another evil regime that conducts "rule by law" and does not respect the rule of law.
6. How to save democracy from technology
Foreign Affairs · Francis Fukuyama, Barak Richman, & Ashish Goel · November 24, 2020
History has not ended. Democracy still needs defense.
"Middleware?" A new term for me.
7. U.S., Taiwan to push an alternative to China’s belt and road
Bloomberg · Miaojung Lin · November 27, 2020
8. Pompeo: we have 'force posture right' on radical Islamic terror
News Max · Eric Mack · November 26, 2020
9. Total Covid-19 cases in U.S. may be eight times higher than reported, scientists estimate
Forbes · Siladitya Ray · November 26, 2020
On the other hand, there are many who believe the statistics are inflated to make Americans afraid. Some believe that if someone tests positive for COVID but dies from some other cause, hospitals report them as dying of COVID.
10. Beijing doesn't want the U.S. to form an 'anti-China coalition' in the post-Trump era, consultancy says
CNBC · Abigail Ng · November 27, 2020
We cannot wish away competition with China, but China sure would like us to. And we should remember that alliances are a threat to China.
Here is a link to the consultancy, Control Risks.
11. Biden should revamp Asia-Pacific path, ditch Indo-Pacific idea
Global Times · November 25, 2020
Here it is in the CCP's own words through their own propaganda mouthpiece, the Global Times.
12. Climate change, terrorism top list of challenges facing US military
Military.com · Richard Sisk · November 25, 2020
The IG does not write the strategy or provide intelligence estimates. But it calls its report "Management Challenges." It can be downloaded here.
13. ‘Let’s build a digital Silk Road’: Xi Jinping looks to cement China’s ties with ASEAN
South China Morning Post · Laura Zhou · November 27, 2020
And, of course, China would want to be in charge of and control such a digital silk road.
14. Targeting North Atlantic Treaty Organization Article 5: assessing enhanced forward presence as a below war threshold response
Divergent Options · Steve MacBeth · November 25, 2020
15. PH air rorce unit shows off improved firepower, accuracy at anniversary rite
Inquirer.net · Frances Mangosing · November 26, 2020
16. Naval group opens office in Philippines with submarine deal in sight
Naval News · Xavier Vavasseur · November 26, 2020
France and the Philippines.
17. Pope Francis: a crisis reveals what is in our hearts
New York Times · Pope Francis · November 26, 2020
I have seen a lot of hearts revealed during the pandemic. Social media is especially revealing.
I am not Catholic, and I do not agree with every one of the Pope's policies and actions. But this is an example of (religious) leadership. Some other religious leaders, regardless of denomination can learn from the Pope.
18. How globalization undermined the case for western values
American Conservative · Kurt Hofer · November 27, 2020
19. Why did 74 million Americans vote for Trump? This sociologist has the answer
Haaretz · David B. Green · November 27, 2020
Those on both sides of the political spectrum should read and reflect on this article and the analysis of Professor Arlie Hochschild.
20. Fundraiser gives back to Alice Brock of hit thanksgiving song fame
NPR · Andrea Shea · November 26, 2020
For all those who listened to Alice's Restaurant yesterday (I made my daughter listen with me and we compared the politics of the 1960s with today's politics).
Fort those who have not listened to Arlo Guthrie recently here is a link to his epic song. Sit on the Group W bench while you listen to it.
"I think, what has this day brought me, and what have I given it?"
- Henry Moore
“… insurgency and counterinsurgency… have enjoyed a level of military, academic, and journalistic notice unseen since the mid-1960s. Scholars and practitioners have recently reexamined 19th- and 20th-century counterinsurgency campaigns waged by the United States and the European colonial powers, much as their predecessors during the Kennedy administration mined the past relentlessly in the hope of uncovering the secrets of revolutionary guerrilla warfare. The professional military literature is awash with articles on how the armed services should prepare for what the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) refers to as “irregular warfare,” and scholars, after a long hiatus, have sought to deepen our understanding of the roles that insurgency, terrorism, and related forms of political violence play in the international security environment.”
-William Rosenau, “Subversion and Terrorism: Understanding and Countering the Threat”
"Creative people are curious, flexible, persistent, and independent with a tremendous spirit of adventure and a love of play."
- Henri Matisse
11/27/2020 News & Commentary - Korea
11/27/2020 News & Commentary - Korea
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. New virus cases over 500 for 2nd day as pandemic deepens on cluster infections
2. Chinese FM warns Korea against siding with U.S.
3. Chinese FM meets parliamentary leader, says Koreas should control their peninsula's 'fate'
4. N. Korea orders overseas missions not to antagonize U.S.: S. Korea's state intelligence agency
5. Police halt breakup of anti-THAAD protesters in Seongju
6. Biden is Kim’s to lose
7. North Korea’s Kim vents fury as pressure mounts over virus and economy, South says
8. S. Korea agency says N. Korea executed people, shut capital
9. Third wave is result of belated, inconsistent response
10. Moon's special adviser urges S. Korea-Japan cooperation to help prevent 'new Cold War'
11. N. Korean authorities transfer border patrol regiment out of Hyesan
12. Ri Pyong Chol rushes to Hyesan to deal with the "Hyesan Incident"
13. Expert questions North Korea gold smuggling report
14. North Korea surveys population for illiterates, orders reading classes
15. Border restrictions drastically cut North Korea's trade
16. Moon meets top Chinese diplomat, requests role for inter-Korean ties
1. New virus cases over 500 for 2nd day as pandemic deepens on cluster infections
Yonhap News Agency · 주경돈 · November 27, 2020
Clusters - gatherings.
2. Chinese FM warns Korea against siding with U.S.
Chosun Ilbo · Ahn Jun-yong · November 27, 2020
The Minister said the quiet part out loud.
3. Chinese FM meets parliamentary leader, says Koreas should control their peninsula's 'fate'
Yonhap News Agency · 장동우 · November 27, 2020
Code for do not let the US interfere. All in support of the mutual objective of both China and North Korea: to split the ROK/US alliance. And with the not-so-subtle caveat that China will play a "constructive role" as an important neighbor, which means it will be constructive for Chinese interests.
4. N. Korea orders overseas missions not to antagonize U.S.: S. Korea's state intelligence agency
Yonhap News Agency · 장동우 · November 27, 2020
Interesting information and assessment. I am not sure about "irrational actions." Kim acts very rational and I think he is demonstrating that here if this report is accurate.
5. Police halt breakup of anti-THAAD protesters in Seongju
Yonhap News Agency · 유청모 · November 27, 2020
These are professional agitators who have hamstrung the ROK government and who are, of course, having a significant impact on operations and life support to our troops manning the THAAD Battery.
6. Biden is Kim’s to L=lose
War On the Rocks · Ramon Pacheco Pardo · November 27, 2020
Will Kim alter his strategy? If he does try to build a good relationship with Biden, will it be sincere or part of his political warfare strategy and long con?
I do fear that those whispering about dealing realistically with Kim really mean to give concessions, enter into arms control negotiations, and accept Kim as a nuclear power.
If we want to deal with Kim realistically, we need to check our assumptions as to the nature of the Kim family regime and its strategy and objectives.
7. North Korea’s Kim vents fury as pressure mounts over virus and economy, South says
Washington Post · Simon Denyer & Min Joo Kim · November 27, 2020
The question is how can the alliance exploit this pressure? But again, I am not sure if Kim's actions are irrational from the perspective of the nature of the Kim family regime.
8. S. Korea agency says N. Korea executed people, shut capital
AP · Hyung-Jin Kim · November 27, 2020
Again, executions are "rational" based on the history and nature of the Kim family regime. Kim Jong-Un has been using executions as a tool for control since he took power.
9. Third wave is result of belated, inconsistent response
Dong-A Ilbo · November 27, 2020
Criticism of the ROK government.
10. Moon’s special adviser urges S. Korea-Japan cooperation to help prevent ‘new Cold War’
Yonhap News Agency · 이원주 · November 26, 2020
I do not agree with Moon Chung-In too much, but I do agree that South Korea-Japan cooperation is a must for mutual security and prosperity. I do not think South Korea and Japan can "mediate" between the US and China.
11. N. Korean authorities transfer border patrol regiment out of Hyesan
Daily NK · Ha Yoon Ah · November 27, 2020
This is related to the alleged reports of gold smuggling: the "Hyesan incident." Hyesan has always been a focal point for resistance and illicit activities partly due to its proximity to the Chinese border.
12. Ri Pyong Chol rushes to Hyesan to deal with the "Hyesan Incident"
Daily NK · Lee Chae Un · November 26, 2020
This report seems to give credence to the gold smuggling report and the Hyesan incident, though there are some who question the gold smuggling. Sending the Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission seems like a significant action.
13. Expert questions North Korea gold smuggling report
Asia Times · Bradley K. Martin · November 26, 2020
It will be interesting to learn the truth (if we ever can).
14. North Korea surveys population for illiterates, orders reading classes
Radio Free Asia · Myungchul Lee, Leejin Jun, & Eugene Whong · November 25, 2020
Again, we should recognize the importance of Radio Free Asia and the contacts it maintains inside North Korea.
I think this is an illustration of the long-term effects of the "Arduous March" of the great famine of 1994-1996. Think about the impacts from COVID-19 and the regime's mitigation measures.
15. Border restrictions drastically cut North Korea's trade
Korea Joong Ang Daily · Park Sung-Woo & Lee Jee-Young · November 27, 2020
And, of course, smuggling as well. How long can these restrictions be maintained before there is a severe internal crisis? What is the "safety valve" for the people? The growing markets since the Arduous March of 1994-1996 have performed the function of a safety valve after the collapse of the public distribution system. These restrictions are going to eventually break those markets, which, of course, could be the objective of the regime (and Kim Jung-Un has the opportunity as well as an event on which to blame the collapse: COVID).
16. Moon meets top Chinese diplomat, requests role for inter-Korean ties
Yonhap News Agency · 오석민 · November 26, 2020
China will not solve South Korea (or ROK/US alliance) security problems on the Korean peninsula.
"I think, what has this day brought me, and what have I given it?"
- Henry Moore
“… insurgency and counterinsurgency… have enjoyed a level of military, academic, and journalistic notice unseen since the mid-1960s. Scholars and practitioners have recently reexamined 19th- and 20th-century counterinsurgency campaigns waged by the United States and the European colonial powers, much as their predecessors during the Kennedy administration mined the past relentlessly in the hope of uncovering the secrets of revolutionary guerrilla warfare. The professional military literature is awash with articles on how the armed services should prepare for what the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) refers to as “irregular warfare,” and scholars, after a long hiatus, have sought to deepen our understanding of the roles that insurgency, terrorism, and related forms of political violence play in the international security environment.”
-William Rosenau, “Subversion and Terrorism: Understanding and Countering the Threat”
"Creative people are curious, flexible, persistent, and independent with a tremendous spirit of adventure and a love of play."
- Henri Matisse
Langevin Supports DOD Refocus on Civilian Oversight (SOF)
Langevin Supports DOD Refocus on Civilian Oversight (SOF)
This needs national attention and not left only to the Warwick (RI) Post.
We need to remove the personalities and conspiracy theories from the equation and focus on the importance of this recent action by Acting SECDEF Miller. And Congress, as evidenced by Rep. Langevin, wants this to be sustained.
QUOTE: "As he prepares to take office, I urge President-elect Biden to prioritize the Senate confirmation of an ASD SO/LIC who will singularly represent the position, perform no other duties, and provide stable, civilian leadership. While for the past two decades our primary adversaries have been terrorist groups, today we are faced with state actors who employ proxies, exhibit diplomatic and economic influence, and wage sophisticated information operations. Special Operations Forces will continue to perform some of the military's most dangerous missions but as part of a broader strategy that equally relies on other U.S. forces. An empowered ASD SO/LIC will direct this change and inculcate the cultural shift special operators need in this era of great power competition," Langevin said.END QUOTE
Access the article here: HERE
11/24/2020 News & Commentary - National Security
11/24/2020 News & Commentary - National Security
News & commentary by Dave Maxwell. Edited and published by Duncan Moore.
1. DOD statement on transition activities
2. Competing in the Pacific: a conversation with U.S. Army Chief of Staff General James C. McConville
3. Chinese party sets bold military goal: ‘mechanized & informationized’ by 2027
4. How one social media app is beating disinformation
5. China says it remains open to the world, but wants to dictate terms
6. Defense in depth: why U.S. security depends on alliances - now more than ever
7. In China, even your name is not safe
8. China vows 'legitimate' response to US admiral's visit to Taiwan
9. Biden’s likely Defense Secretary pick Flournoy faces progressive pushback
10. We have met the enemy, and it is us: restoring American power
11. Quad 2.0 is off to a good start - it must keep going
12. Even Trump's fiercest critics say he may have gotten some world affairs right
13. RCEP not to have a strong impact
14. Biden’s foreign-policy team takes shape
15. Pentagon reports $5B in improper payments to civilian workforce
16. America, heal thyself
17. Balancing counter-terrorism measures with international human rights
18. What does China think U.S.-China relations should look like?
19. Cooperative competition is possible between China and the U.S.
1. DOD statement on transition activities
US Department of Defense · November 23, 2020
2. Competing in the Pacific: a conversation with U.S. Army Chief of Staff General James C. McConville
FDD · Bradley Bowman · November 19, 2020
The CSA provides detailed insights throughout the INDOPACIFIC to include from his recent visit to Korea and Indonesia.
3. Chinese party sets bold military goal: ‘mechanized & informationized’ by 2027
Breaking Defense · Dean Cheng · November 23, 2020
4. How one social media app is beating disinformation
Foreign Policy · Elizabeth Lange & Doowan Lee · November 23, 2020
5. China says it remains open to the world, but wants to cictate terms
New York Times · Steven Lee Myers · November 24, 2020
My assessment: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.
6. Defense in depth: why U.S. security depends on alliances - now more than ever
Foreign Affairs · Kori Schake, Jim Mattis, Jim Ellis, & Joe Felter · November 23, 2020
Here is a dream team of authors who know a thing or two about alliances.
7. In China, even your name is not safe
Safeguard Defenders · November 24, 2020
The 24-page report can be downloaded at this link.
8. China vows 'legitimate' response to US admiral's visit to Taiwan
Hill · Ellen Mitchell · November 23, 2020
So, what is a "legitimate response and necessary reactions"?
9. Biden’s likely Defense Secretary pick Flournoy faces progressive pushback
Foreign Policy · Jack Detsch & Robbie Gramer · November 23, 2020
I think the progressives would be well served to leave Defense to Ms. Flournoy.
10. We have met the enemy, and it is us: restoring American power
Defense One · Gregory D. Foster · November 23, 2020
There are elements of the NSS and NDS that should be preserved. I hope the Biden administration will embrace those strategies. I hope they will not throw the baby out with the bath water or take the position of “not invented here” or that the new administration must undo and do the opposite of everything of the previous administration. I hope they do an objective analysis of the strategies and preserve what is necessary for the national security of the U.S.
As an example, this excerpt from the NSS should transcend administrations:
"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
Thanks to Nadia Schadlow and HR McMaster for giving us these wise words.
11. Quad 2.0 is off to a good start - it must keep going
Diplomat · Manoj Rawat · November 23, 2020
The Quad and Quad Plus is something the Biden administration must preserve and pursue.
12. Even Trump’s fiercest critics say he may have gotten some world affairs right
USA Today · Kim Hjelmgaard & Deirdre Shesgreen · November 24, 2020
I would say the Trump administration's policies may provide the Biden administration with a lot of flexibility for the future. In addition, the conditions have changed such that no one should be expecting a reversion to Obama era policies. I also think Biden is his own foreign policy man and will not be tied to previous Obama or even Democratic policies. Again, I hope the Biden administration conducts an objective review and preserves the right policies and strategies (again specifically from the NSS and NDS).
13. RCEP not to have a strong impact
Taipei Times · Yen Huai-shing · November 23, 2020
Interesting view from Taiwan.
14. Biden’s foreign-policy team takes shape
Wall Street Journal · Walter Russel Mead · November 23, 2020
Concur. It will not be an Obama foreign policy reprise.
15. Pentagon reports $5B in improper payments to civilian workforce
Federal News Network · Jared Serbu · November 23, 2020
Ouch.
16. America, heal thyself
Project Syndicate · Ana Palacio · November 20, 2020
The domestic divisions will not go away anytime so or even ever. Of course, the divisions have always existed, but, as long as those on both sides of the divide remain committed to the Constitution and searching for a more perfect union as part of the great American experiment, we will prevail despite the divides.
17. Balancing counter-terrorism measures with international human rights
Modern Diplomacy · Siddharth Singh · November 23, 2020
18. What does China think U.S.-China relations should look like?
New York Times · Kathleen Kingsbury · November 24, 2020
19. Cooperative competition is possible between China and the U.S.
New York Times · Fu Ying · November 24, 2020
The op-ed from a Chinese official. I wonder if we get to publish one in the Global Times or Xinhua?
"The mind of the enemy and the will of his leaders is a target of far more importance than the bodies of his troops."
- Mao Zedong
“If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected.”
- Sun Tzu
"War is getting sneakier. War is going underground. And we have to go underground with it. We have to fight in the shadows. Otherwise, we will be left behind."
- Sean McFate
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